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It makes surprised everyone. It surprised every polls.
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The Reserve Bank of India’s announced no change in its benchmark repo rate and kept it constant at 6.5%. This was against the market consensus and our expectation of a 25 bps rate hike. One of the key features of the policy report was the cut in inflation estimates for H2 FY19 by nearly 50 bps at the mean estimate of 4.3%. The RBI didn’t mention core inflation as being a source of problem for the future even as all inflation drivers remain fairly robust. The benign headline inflation which is a function of lower food price inflation (running at ~3%) played out through the policy. This means RBI is in no hurry to raise rates and may await more stringent rise in prices before acting eventually. Also the off policy announcement regarding liquidity management through OMOs, carving out of LCR from SLR and allowing companies to raise ECBs appear to be the key policy tools for liquidity management.
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