Hello guys,
So, everyone is noticing how STEEM is on a correction for 3 months now, and it isn't growing the way people wanted it to in December.
Well, let me tell you what changed and what made me, one of the guys who said Steem would rise, to have changed his mind about it.
If debating STEEM's price and mooning is something you like, then read this post.
However, be prepared to read something discouraging... for the moment.
Here's What I Thought in December:
I was pretty bullish on STEEM and agreed with @taskmaster4450's prediction last year.
I joined on the 11th of December and as such I accompanied some pretty interesting values.
What made me reach the conclusion that STEEM would innevitably moon were all the benefits of the blockchain, but more importantly:
- HARDFORK 20;
- SMART MEDIA TOKENS;
- COMMUNITIES (HIVE);
- Applets.
Etc...
You know, those exciting things people were finding out about. Plus, everyone was saying it would be coming on the beggining of 2018.
Exciting stuff right?
Yeah, I thought so as well. However, we know some things take more time then you'd like.
By now you're seeing why STEEM won't moon now.
HF20 Delay, Announcements, POLONIEX, South Korea:
So carrying on, here's what is stopping STEEM from mooning:
First of all, the Hard Fork just doesn't come, the Smart Media Tokens aren't here yet and the announcements aren't plenty... in fact, there's no date yet.
The blockchain is being worked upon, true, but what people see is Status Quo being maintained. There's no reason for STEEM to climb madly in price except for the reasons we already had before.
On the other hand, the Circle getting POLONIEX was an issue @transisto and others brought to light, as STEEM wallets have some problems and they have a lot of volume there, volume that can only be sold.
This is a downward factor, not upward.
South Koreans have been calm too so no pumping STEEM or SBDs.
There aren't many news about the Communities initiative either.
The problem is, STEEM will only MOON when these things get taken care of.
When the Status Quo is broken and something happens.
Don't Be Overbullish:
Hey,
I'm an optimist... but for STEEM to reach values such as $100, do you see how much the numbers like marketcap would be?
And how much STEEM would have to be bought?
Well, It's possible and I believe it can be done, but it will take some movement from the Blockchain, and developments are needed.
We recently got out of the first dump phase that happened last year, and we NEED to get to "Media Attention".
Bloomberg and the others publishing STEEM related pieces are a good sign, but Media Attention isn't coming en masse until some changes happen and press releases are done explaining the great new features.
And, of course, when brand new projects, companies and entrepreneurs arrive on the blockchain.
Here's some food for thought.
I would like to see some discussion in the comments section.
Cheers!
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Well, Polo is no factor, since the volume is <5% of the total STEEM volume.
The other thing is, that crypto markets don't react much on facts at all. One reason being, that most people that are in this field (and especially the many newbies) have no freaking idea what is going on or just don't care about facts. Believe it or not, there are many people owning STEEM, that have not even heard of Steemit before. Go figure...
Like it or not, but you can make even the crypto Top 10 without any valid foundation at all. I also liked the idea of "solid facts" having a result on the price, but this is simply not the reality.
The good thing is though, that you also don't need to worry, if HF20 or SMTs only come somewhen 2019 - the market doesn't care - it's all smoke and mirrors!
So let's enjoy the ride - it may even go up without any reason at all!
You do have a point... but luck isn't something we can influence, so let's focus on the things we can!
Yeah, it's like these little cars on rails for kids at the fun-fair. They also believe to be able to drive in a certain direction by will. That's why I always say, that Crypto TA is not real fortunetelling! 😀It's fun though... Every new day, there is a new surprise!
Well i do have more problems to list on why steem is not mooning,.
The flag wars and rewards pool issue. I am willing to bet this is causing some investors to avoid buying more steem due to the fighting go on. Until something can be settled. I do not want steemit to become like bitcoin
it started off slowly with minor issue until it got so big that a huge portion of bitcoin forked off and become bitcoin cash.
The community is fighting each other. While it does not seem that big, we should be careful. bitcoin scaling issue started off as small too.
As a "new" user here I agree with you. I arrived at the end of January and the first week I was well-behaved but thought it was strange with all the comments and differences in what people received from the posts at the post. so starting to realized the problem and had a couple of weeks of flagging and looking for bots. but now a dont care so much anymore. but think many people have an idea that this is paradise but get a little shock and leave us fast
or just starting the spam. someone talk about how many new accounts are coming. but the alarms were many inactive accounts. but there is no evidence if one compare
to Facebook etc. but people is Seeing this and siting on the fence, and not powering up. but a thing if bitcoin is mooning steem will follow anyway.
Well, it is very easy to stay out of any flag wars if you want. Plus, they don't influence profitability in any way. I doubt investors are so easilly scared when money is on the line.
Steem will also have no problems scaling, it surpasses BTC Heavilly!
To me Steem is a means to make money on a daily basis, grow my account for potential future mooning and invest some of my earnings in other cryptos to diversify my portfolio. I think everything works just perfectly right now. The longer Steem holds back the more Steem Power we can aquire as that will become so much more difficult in the future. Steem will moon eventually but it does not matter whether it happens in Q2 or Q4 2018 - or even later. There are no competitors and Steem is growing as an ecosystem every single day. All great stuff in my opinion. :)
No competitors as of now... they'll come out soon enough, hence why I think we need to go ahead and start growing even more, which seems to be starting to happen these last few days with sign ups.
we dont need media attention we need media participation in the platform. right now they are getting their stuff ripped and missing out on huge earnings.
plus bringing in longstanding media companies to put content on steem will bring an influx of customers. it would also make more businesses curious about the invention of add ons and SMT's
I am very disappointed in the lackluster advertisement and updates on SMT's there need to be more attention and emphasis put on this product. it could be what take Steem/ sbd to around $50 if done right.
Yeap.
Unfortunately, Steemit's Marketing people are a bit lackluster.
Great overall analysis of influencing factors on the price of Steem! I agree with you, I think the price correction is only natural following the mooning of the price in December (that’s when I joined in as well) but given time I think it’s only inevitable the price of steem will reach new all time highs. The only real question is how long will that take and probably depends on a lot of the factors you mentioned in your article :)
Thanks for stopping by! Who knows when it'll happen, but I'll be here to see it!
I would love to see Steem take off and moon shot, but I don't see that happening any time soon. One of the problems that I have seen so far in my short time being here on this platform is that there are a lot of newer people that are joining and they are not really putting any skin in the game by purchasing Steem tokens. If Steem is a platform that they really believed in and want to succeed, I would assume that they would want to invest in it's future to help make it successful. I just wish I would have been introduced to Steemit in March of 2017 when the price of Steem was around $0.09. For now I will continue to buy Steem as I can so that my influence on this platform can rise and in turn I can help do my part in making this a great community. Thank you for your insight on everything. Hopefully the market cap will rise and the value of Steem will rise with it.
I hope so as well.
As far as investment is concerned, I'm guilty of not having bought any token, I just earned them.
The difference between you and a lot of others is that you have put in a ton of work and we can all tell that you are passionate about the community. You have formed your own community of of followers and are very active in others as well.
Marketing for Steem from STINC seems to be non-existent so if you want to take up the gauntlet for that it would be great!
As far as Steem mooning, I'm happy to let it consolidate at these levels for the time being. It's become more difficult to generate SBDs and Steem here, so this consolidation phase is a good time to build your account because once SMTs and Communities are released and the masses begin to join Steemit I think the difficulty of generating Steem/SBDs will increase by several exponential factors.
Yeap, you'll have less growth as far as SP is concerned, but on the other hand Steem will be worth more.
Finally, I already offered my services to STINC, so it's up to them :P
They could use some good marketing IMO.
I wish I could find that comment, where I said, that steem will not shoot in the sky.
Did you read the last posts from STINC?
I could not read anything new there. They seem to be stalling.
Even if the community is growing with the current rate, maintaining a witness node will be expensive at the end of the year.
More user, more chatter, bigger blockchain, more RAM.
Granted that witness nodes so far are easilly obtained... Any guy with a good setup can be a witness, you don't need miner grade material to do it.
But yeah, I agree, Steem isnt mooning anytime soon.
Steem is actually doing ok compared to many other alts. There is a product being used and I can see more and more small vendors in the future accepting it as payment. I will be accepting it as a form of payment for my event in Tokyo. Add Palmpay into the mix and I am bullish this year on Steem.
Poloniex is a problem. I have heard that Circle may drop a lot of low cap coins. If by some chance Steem & SBD fell under that ax it would be a big blow psychologically. I don't think this will happen though because Steemit is the largest crypto based social media platform out there.
My target is $10 by June. BTC closed the monthly candle in the green which is a bullish sign. Given it's March, spring is here and tax returns are coming, people are looking to open up their wallets. It's about to get exciting again!
$10 isn't bad, but I was aiming to sell at $50.
God dammit :P
Keep in mind that's June... Could be $50 by December! Check this out
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
December was totally bullish month for all the altcoins because of bitcoin growth in November. It will be foolish to anticipate anything like that in this time of correction.
I agree that steem has value built in itself but people should also have an idea about money, how it flows? The early adopters are reaping the benefits but this will not be the case when millions of people would be on steemit. Still I think steem is way far from it's potential right now.
The problem is they have a kickass product here but the marketing ability of a toddler.
There's always this discussion among market followers, what the market has and has not factored in. In the crypto space, I think the market is either too exuberant or too skepticism, there's no middle ground. This is what is reflecting on Steem's price to a large extent I think. The market is too skepticism now about Steem and it needs a nudge to move to the exuberant stage.
Yeap... waiting for that nudge... I want my account value to reach 100K, and at these prices that will take too much time.
I can't comment on how far we are from the next hard fork or if it's really gonna move things forward as I don't have enough knowledge about steem blockchain development, but I can comment on hive mind or community side of things, and if I understand it well steem's price is intrinsically tied up to steemit... and it has many problems, which I'll point to:
1.) shitloads of inactive accounts
2.) more and more bid and resteem bots every day
3.) spammy acounts
4.) bandwidth problems
5.) inertia on the side of minnows when it comes to stepping forward due to:
a.) lack of SP or influence
b.) fear of getting downvoted into oblivion by whales
c.) wasting their downvotes on accounts that keep on thriving
d.) problems competing with early adopters or their bots even with WAY BETTER content
e.) lack of whales' support for anyone else beside themselves
6.) lack of community-creating mechanisms, that would let bloggers expand within their respective niches
7.) time it takes to get around all the technical details of steem blockchain
8.) bad press cryptos are getting in the mainstream media, that keeps a lot of potential users at a distance
If we really wanna see stemith thrive and steem grow in price, we'd have to address this, but how we do it on steem decentralised blockchain I don't really have a clue, and I wish someone gave me the answer!
A lot of those issues are non-existent... bandwidth problems can be fixed by users collecting rewards, whcih they can easily do. SP can rise pretty fast at current levels, I have more bandwidth than I could ever use, 2K SP and Im 2 months and something old.
There's no easier place to bank online either, so there's that.
Sure we have been seeing an increase in the number of sign ups and @taskmaster4450 reported we just passed the 800k mark (active users though is a lot lower)
Marketing has been non existent that it prompted people like @stellabelle to make a Planet Steem twitter account because Steem's own has not been active.
The lack of updates also seem to plague us with SMT and hard works but there was the recent post in Steemit by @ned
So I'm still optimistic about the growth of Steem but agree that we need to break the status quo.
Great analysis Max!
All fair points.
Let's hold and wait.
Very nice insight and observations, thanks so much for sharing.
Thanks.
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