Splinterlands: Banking on Rebellion Gold Foil Legendary Cards

Documenting recent Rebellion Legendary Gold Foil card purchases and reasoning for doing so...

_{Credit to @clove71}

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I wrote recently on the subject of Splinterlands and in particular, my position in the game and how that came about, and my plans for the Rebellion card set airdrops. With the month long airdrop event now underway, I have decided to up my chances by purchasing 10 Rebellion Legendary Gold Foil cards.

Before I go any further I'd like to mention that these funds are only available to me because Splinterlands exists. The game allowed me to take some profits a couple of years ago and I'm sort of 'reinvesting at a lower price' - different assets, same game.

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Having thought about the possibility of adding Rebellion card packs to my existing wagons, it is hard to see past the obvious difference in cost/CP when compared to GFL cards. 100 (10000 CP) Rebellion packs (less with vouchers / you do get 5 extra if you add vouchers) cost 400,000 DEC, approximately $380 (+$95 for the other 20) at the time of writing, and right now a Rebellion GFL (12500 CP) costs....

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It has been possible in the past week to buy 3 GLFs for the price of 100 packs (and easily less than 125 packs) - 37500 CP v 10000 (12500 for 125 packs) CP. There is a chance that the packs could contain lots of GFLs of course, but recent experience is that it is unlikely that there will be any in 100 packs. And unlike previous airdrops where pack purchases (from SL) counted towards the next airdrop, now the only metric is Collection Power.

So 3 of GFLs would provide a 37500 Collection Power boost to my Rebellion deck and the 'War Effort'.

3 GFLs added to a Wagon at the start of airdrop event:

37500 (CP) * 720 (hours) / 100000 (chances) = 270 chances

3 GFLs added to a Wagon now (29-JAN-2024 6pm CET / See screenshot below):

37500 (CP) x 583 hours / 100000 (chances) = 218 chances

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3 GFLs would comfortably* (ok maybe the first 2 or 3... ) collect one airdrop card each event and should also be guaranteed a card if starting as of the time above.

I also considered buying Epic Gold Fold cards - 5 of these would provide the same 12500 CP as one GFL. Right now, you can buy 5 of the below for about the same price as the cheapest GFL, but the market generally has 1 GFL slightly cheaper than buying 5 GF Epic cards.

And also, I'd much rather own a GFL!

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So my thinking for these rather lavish purchases is that current owners and future owners (those lucky enough to pick up a GFL in a pack) will want to boost airdrop chances and will be less likely to sell, at present anyway.

Less cards on the market means less opportunity for price fluctuations, especially down?

Bull market starting toward the end of the year?

3 GFLs should collect at least 3/4/5 (depending on number of chances per guaranteed card) airdropped cards and looking at the previous airdrops, $10-$15 looks to be the base for non foil with the Gold version of the cards starting from around $150. One should expect to receive 9 standard card, with an outside chance of a GFL.

If the GLFs hold their value, and if the airdropped cards hold a similar value to the previous set, I will feel like these additional purchases have achieved what I wanted them to.

With the potential bonus of finishing above @tarazkp in the leaderboard 😉

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I'm speculating for sure and in 9 months things could look different. The bear market could still be holding assets down, or the bull could be close and NFTs may have already started to recover - fingers crossed for the latter.

What do you think? Rash, or potentially a good move?

Good luck all,

Asher