Here I am, calling the bottom.
Hive in price terms has been obliterated non-stop for the past 5 months and I'm starting to feel my gut uncomfortable, which is usually a bottom signal.
I would like to share a couple long-term charts and some thoughts. I believe we are very near a reversal and that the bottom is almost in if not already. IMHO 0,1$/HIVE won't happen. Maybe 0,12$-0,13$ in a fast flash crash but there's a lot of people waiting for these already ridiculous low prices which I believe it's not going to happen (hopefully I'm right).
On the other hand staying at these levels for some time is "good" in the sense that people here only for milking rewards are seeing their dollar value quickly diminishing and have to sell everything just to keep paying their bills.
Whatever, weekly HIVE/USD chart:
2 Very important levels; 2021 June wick and low defined a range, currently we are on the low end of this range.
What's my take? this:
We can share a lot of drama but true is that "price-wise" things always could be much worse. Many other alts are in the same situation as us. Difference is that we are cockroaches and more "drama tested" than anyone out there.
In 2020 we entered that range in 21 Sept and stayed until Feb. 140 days. Hype of the early days was dying off and depression was intense.
Same as today.
''DHF Funds"
"We will never recover from this".
"I don't know if power up 100K"
"Nah u fool"
All of this screams to me "BOTTOM SIGNAL".
If we follow something similar October is the month we get out of these 140 days "depression-bottomish-bottom".
Maybe not 1$, but as fast as we went down from 0,3$ to 0,2$ it wouldn't be strange for HIVE to go on turbo mode and go back to the 0,3$ range.
This will happen sooner or later and people will regret not buying more at these bargain prices.
Damn, me and @silverstackeruk bought like mf's insane amounts of HIVE at 0,3-0,45n just to see HIVE price go suicidal shortly after. Still we are there. Holding like champions and following the plan.
There's a lot of truth after the popular say "trust the process". Right now people are very fearful. Usually you should be buying now.
More charts.
Potential "triple bottom" there (still not confirmed, let's see if we bounce there or not) and WEEKLY MACD crossover cooking.
This crossover is something to consider, we had smaller crossovers on Feb of this year which brought us from 0,3$ to 0,45$ and another one in Jan 23 after the bear market BTC bottom which brought us from to 0,25$ to 0,45$.
As I said, smaller ones, but enough to pull up us for some time.
More:
Looking at RSI, there's a "not so hidden" bullish divergence (again on the WEEKLY timeframe).
If the current weekly candle doesn't shit us down, the potential of reversing there is something to consider.
Again, let me mention again that this is a WEEKLY timeframe, which means it compresses data information from many months. This is not a 1 minute chart.
Conclusion.
Hold there stronk fellas. September has always been a shitty month for crypto.
A potential reversal there could pull us again into the 0,3$ range sooner than we think.
I'm more permabull than ever.
Hopefully I'm more right than wrong today.
Stay safe out there.
Thanks for reading.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
I keep accumulating HP, it's the only sensible thing to do now. Those who sell at such low prices have very little understanding of how the market works
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 29/49) Liquid rewards.
Exactly
There's some great lines in this post, love it....
Maybe a little wishful thinking, I think it could sink a tad lower, but I've just started pick up a few Hives, the exchange rate feels Good!
wishful because I'm clearly biased and I want that to happen hehe
Although I'm fine with low prices (as long as we go up later).
Hope you're doing great sir :)
I did just buy another 1500, I'm doing good!
Some interesting analysis. What would make me buy Hive? A change in the signal which we dont have right now.
1)The immediate problem:
The HBD Debt is costing Hive around $100k per month, but the DHF "debt" as it isnt unlocked Hive, is debt, is costing nearly $250k and this isnt even counted in the debt limit.
This has now grown in % and absolute terms to equal the rewards of HP holders!!
Unless the DHF spending is massively scaled back to avoid the HBD conversion "soft limit", it could spiral from there. It would also make sense to scale back HBD interest as the chain can no longer sustain it.
2)The long term problem:
The DAO funds should be burned as they are used to benefit insiders and make the chain unattractive to invest in for outsiders.
Good points. But IMHO signals go before price, not the other way. This means that by the time the problems you mention are resolved, the opportunity in terms of price will no longer be here.
Btw
1 - HBD debt it's not "that" much and it isn't a problem unless we stay in that price range for a loooong time. The HBD interest already scaled back 25% ( 20 to 15). We can't tweak these type of things that often IMHO.
HBD interest is one of the last things that I would touch. which bring us to DHF
And yes, DHF spending should scale back (at least for some time). Or change the approach for a more "result centric" approach.
2 - I would make much harder to receive funds and/or impose hard deadlines and such. Most projects have a Foundation or similar.
There's no "insiders" as such (understood as private investors/advisors/venture capital. It is easy to criticise Hive because of its social component and transparency, but the truth is that it has many more positives than negatives in the way it works.
1- The HBD debt isn't that much at a cost of around $100k per month currently, I agree. The main "problem" is the DHF spending at 2.5x HBD Interest is the most urgent action and should be addressed with priority. This shows how out of kilter the DAO is with reality.
However, combined together, they both take over 50% of the monthly rewards from HP holders and this signal is a big problem.
There are many good things about Hive, but these are sadly dwarfed by the lack of transparency and the duplicity around the adjustments to tokenomics to benefit insiders. The 2 big examples I just gave above to extract value from HP holders (50% of rewards without doing anything ~$350k per month).
1 - 100% agree.
What do you mean by 50% of monthly rewards from HP holders? Do you mean this accounts for author/curation and HP interest combined? I guess u mean that.
If this is the case I would say this situation can only last for some time. If we stay for ages at 0,1-0,2$ yes, can be a problem. But this current price action is a bit of the "expection". We haven't been there in a sustained way since +4 years. So talking about this price like the normality it's a bit of cherry picking.
What do you mean by duplicity around the adjustments to tokenomics? HIVE last relevant update to tokenomics was in 2021 when mechanism to mint HBD by burning HIVE was introduced.
Yes, with the lower prices, the figures are inflated for the DHF. If the price rises it should become better and lower %. However, as the debt limit was increased, the conversion stop didnt kick in for the $11m HBD debt and as the DHF debt isnt counted at all, there are no measures to slow this down either.
With PoS chains, network dominance tends to lead to more network dominace. Are you asking how it is done on Hive? If there was no HBD interest and DHF payments, for people to keep their network dominance, they would have to hodl their Hive. The HBD interest and DHF payments allow circumvention of this.
Ah, u mean this.
Even without HBD interest and DHF payments, % share of stakers would go down over time because of PoB. But that's not a problerm IMHO. HIVE is decently spread out Vs many other coins. It's a process which just takes time.
In an ideal world, supply of HBD is in the billions and HIVE is a 10-20$ coin similar to LUNA but decentralized and without the pain point of death spiraling at the minimum
Yeah, fingers crossed 🤞 hopefully this is the bottom and we get a nice run from here.
Doesn't make sense to predict based on chart patterns when the audience with stake is like 12 people. Does the product have a viable future or not? If not, you aren't going to see a random burst of value out of the ether unless one random whale decides to invest big time for no particular reason.
And I don't think that whale can be predicted by analysing charts...
Well, we are many more than 12.
Although you're right. 100% of stablished markets are simply ruled by algorythms and 99,99% of our price action it's just machines catching up with what BTC is doing but worse.
Regarding the "viable future", no one knows and that's why those things are unpredictable. But this is a "continuous" event, it's not a 0 or a 1.
I think those charts and candles need some background soundtrack to lift our spirits even more.
Totally with you on your analysis. This is a perfect time to accumulate more hive!
I would have been MUCH better off selling mine at $1 lol At these levels mid as well just keep super stacking honestly. People selling at these levels are honestly crazy IMO and kind of speaks to the nature of why they are here and that's just to extract. Being that hive is built that way however they really need a way to generate that revenue they are paying out to content creators it's the fundamental flaw of this whole blockchain the way it's designed right now.
IMHO it's not a "flaw", it's a feature.
HIVE holders can decide where to allocate his fair share of inflation. In most if not all of the other chains added inflation goes to the stacker, which adds over time to centralization.
Here it's a bit of the opposite, HIVE tends to distribute over time. And this is a good time IMHO.
Inflation and Author rewards are not that much anyway.
I will never sell HIVE at these low prices. I will calmly buy HIVE, even if at the moment I see a red candle up to $0.05.
If we see 0,05$ it will definitely be stressful.
I don't see that happening honestly
Well, everything is possible as long this is a small and niche chain, where there is no buy pressure and some whales are proven morons.
I stopped buying $HIVE 18 months ago, and power up only revenue. Off course, I think the chain has a future, that is why I did not unstake and sell out, but not as high potential for 100x, as there must be some other changes happening on the market, and on the chain, starting with people retention.
Right now I keep buying and I know the price will eventually go up. If Hive is only 50 cents my money will triple and that's something very likely in this bull ^^
It's my 2nd cycle, so I'm no longer affected by the low price. If we ever reach $0.13, $0.12, or even $0.10, I'll see it as an opportunity to buy more. Otherwise, I'll regret not doing so when the price bounces back up.
That's the attitude. Congratz for that mentality
I guess that's the mentality one would have after surviving a cycle. Thanks 😅
I think what's important is to set a goal to build and never lose sight of it, regardless of the market conditions.
Believe me or not, most people just quit and that's it.
I must like S&M
S&M?
May I ask what it mean?
sado-masochism
@trumpman can tell lmao
Wow, I bet you really enjoy a good pain au chocolat then! Get it? “Pain”?…
I'll see myself out.
Would bang
Hoping that I could add more than 10k to my account.
Don't wait much more! I would pref ~7K here rather than waiting for 0,1$
Hm
I'd be cool seeing it touch $.14. I have a buy in down at that level. Most of my other buys are at $.16, but that hasn't full hit yet compared to HBD. I'm hoping to be sitting on close to 10,000 HIVE by the time the price starts to go back up.
Sitting liquid u mean? Or 100K overall? It's a great milestone btw
I'd like to have 100K staked and 10,000 sitting liquid for a potential price increase.
At these levels if you don't need to sell then you won't. But some people have to sell and have to do so no matter the price.
Hive is no different to many alts, to think BTC has ATHs this year. ETFs have changed the landscape and imho we could hit that 10 cent mark.
It will go up it is just a matter of when and as you say September is traditionally a dodgy month for crypto. Throw in the US election the state of the dollar and the wars over the world and what would I give for a crystal ball right now!
I am sure you are familiar with the term "Hard Right Edge". It is a bitch!
I have traded in virtually every market over the last 25-30 years, seen many bull and bear markets, and even worse, sideways markets! What I have found after using TA for the same amount of time, that indicators are typically slow and have very little predictive power.
Only one thing is right: Price (at any given time :))
hehe that's why I use question marks. Although I'm more familiarized with the term "last candle fog" which means the same.
And yes, 100% of indicators are laggards since it's not possible to get data from things that didn't happened yet (when you think about it it's dense though). As you said, price is the only reliable indicator.
Can I ask how old are you sir?
I'm just 29 and your trading experience covers my whole lifetime.
I am 48. Started trading JPY at 16 :)
Started with currency then slowly other things. Now only \es futures that too rarely. Don’t need to trade anymore :) :)