How much higher will this next peak be than the prior one in Bitcoin?
Everyone loves to talk about peak prices for this cycle, so I thought I would throw my hat in the ring as well.
I've mentioned $100k and $200k a few times in previous posts and those are numbers I am still looking at now.
I think it's almost a forgone conclusion that bitcoin goes over $100k this year, and possibly over $200k as well.
I come up with these guesses based on previous halving patterns mostly and the clearest way to see them is looking at a chart of prior tops.
Something like this:
(Source: ~~~ embed:1365046989465939968/photo/1) twitter metadata:Y2FzZTRiaXRjb2lufHxodHRwczovL3R3aXR0ZXIuY29tL2Nhc2U0Yml0Y29pbi9zdGF0dXMvMTM2NTA0Njk4OTQ2NTkzOTk2OC9waG90by8xKXw= ~~~
The price just keeps going higher, but if you look at the peaks there is somewhat of a pattern there.
The data following past peaks:
- 62x
- 36x
- 17x
- ???
While not perfect there is a trend here.
The second peak was 42% lower than the prior one, while the third peak was 53% lower than the second. If we see a similar jump this time around, maybe we see a peak about 65% lower than the prior one.
If we take that 65% lower metric from 17x, we would be looking at about 6x the prior high.
With the prior high around $20k, that would imply the high for the current cycle to be around $120k.
A bit lower than most people think and lower than both past halving patterns project, but something that could be pretty likely if this trend of diminishing returns continues.
What price are you looking at for the peak, and why?
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
In favor of diminishing returns are: past history of diminishing returns, higher market cap and the introduction of institutional investors who may be less likely fall for irrational exuberance.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yep exactly. Plus the overall amount of money that will need to come in to keep pushing it higher and higher. At higher and higher prices, it needs more and more of it coming in.
The big question is, what is after the peak? will the big new holder dump it?
Will we see 2 years of painful bearmarket?
Or will it this time different with the big names in it.
Cant wait to see it :)
What will follow after the peak is a crash and a bear market that lasts for about a year. Then there will be ups and downs until a new mega bull market begins 12-18 months after the 2024 Bitcoin mining reward halving.
Nothing is certain but that's what I'm going to bet on happening.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
$388.000
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Wow. That is a lot higher than my targets. I hope you are right Mr. Ace!
20x from the 2017 peak... kind of. I hope I'm right too.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yep, I am expecting each cycle to have diminishing returns like I mentioned above. Would love to be wrong though! :)
I've seen that pattern. Who knows, maybe the one will break the chain considering that there's a new type of investors in the market.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta