The Psychology of Gambling: Near Misses

Predetermined Outcome

If you've ever touched a slot machine, you know the feeling when you just missed the jackpot or a huge payout. In fact, in all gambling this near-miss effect occurs. Whether it's hitting a 9 when you needed 8 or lower in Blackjack, or the ball bouncing out of your number in Roulette, there is always the lingering feeling that you barely missed out on a win.

This is caused by a bit of selection bias by the human brain. The odds of winning are the same regardless of circumstance but in the moment, when you are so close to getting a payout but lose, that triggers an effect in gamblers. They want to continue playing, to seek out the win. This results in a loss of self-control and is exactly what casinos desire.

In slots, gamblers may find that they always encounter near-misses and this is no coincidence. Slot machines do show near-misses more often than not because the outcome of the bet was already determined before the machine even begins spinning. This in turn allows the machine to entertain the gambler, showing all sorts of lights and effects, but most importantly show them a near-miss. Showing all the opportunities to win makes a gambler want to continue despite the high house edge in slots (ranging anywhere from 1% to over 40% in brick & mortar casinos!)

Near misses outside of slots may happen accidentally but gamblers would still find themselves psychologically motivated to continue wagering.
"Just one more game, I've almost got it!"
Near misses make it seem like you only need to drive a little bit further to win but they're just a trap to lure you deeper.

Such is the way that gambling controls the mind.