When the Ukraine war started, and Russia was removed from the SWIFT system amongst other sanctions, all the talking heads started chattering about de-dollarization. Surely Russia would get together with China and other interested parties and by-pass the mighty US D?
Well we now have several years data, and what has actually happened is de-euroization. Here is the graph:
What seems to have happened is that in the lead up to the Ukraine war, Russia had already weaned itself off the US Dollar, because it expected sanctions; Russia held no US dollar reserves at the start of the war, and you can see use of the euro rising from 2019 to the start of the war. Being ejected from SWIFT put an end to their use of the euro.
What are they using instead? Well you can see a rise in Renminbi use, so Russia's trade with China is probably being conducted in renminbi. Russia is also using gold and barter. And I wouldn't be surprised if they were using bitcoin.
The other eye-catching element in the chart is the rise in the use of the dollar.
This is obviously not Russia's doing. I think it's driven by Africa. Lots of former French Africa used the euro - but distrust of France and the EU is high, and they see the Americans and the dollar as being more trustworthy and safer.
Of course, the last time use of the euro was this low was during the eurozone crisis of 2013/14. Perhaps the moneymen are anticipating another crisis for the euro?