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candy49 (59)in #uk • 7 hours ago
Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell is charged with embezzlement
He's been charged with embezzling SNP funds, while he was party leader. It's not yet clear how much Nicola Sturgeon knew and whether she'll be charged too. The big question is…
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30 1
candy49 (59)in #uk • 6 days ago
What do local council by-elections tell us about the upcoming general election?
Unlike opinion polls, council by-elections show us what people who actually show up to vote are thinking. There have been 168 council by-elections since the Local Elections in…
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Payout tomorrow
33 1
candy49 (59)in #uk • 29 days ago
Reform surges to 15% in Yougov poll
YouGov has been persistently showing low scores for Tories and high scores for Reform. This might be to do with sampling issues - instead of a random sample of people, they polll…
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36 1
candy49 (59)in #uk • last month
What really caused the Tory drubbing in 1997?
There's been a lot of re-writing of history about the 1997 general election, mainly by people who were small children at the time, or who were born afterwards. They look at the…
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> archon-gov: $0.02
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candy49 (59)in #uk • last month
Will there be an election in May?
Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party has been working really hard to move the opinion polling dial. Since November 2023, National Insurance has been cut by 4% (at a total cost of…
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41 3
candy49 (59)in #ireland • last month
Are opinion polls reliable?
The Republic of Ireland has just had a referendum to amend their constitution. There were two amendments proposed. One was to change references to "marriage" and replace it with…
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41 1
candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months ago
The surprising results of the Rochdale by-election
I don't mean the winner George Galloway, I mean the man who came second, independent candidate Dave Tully. Tully owns a car repair business in Rochdale, and only decided to…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months ago
Will the Speaker survive?
So - we had shenanigans in Parliament last Wednesday. The SNP had an "Opposition Day". What does that mean? Well, the elected government controls the parliamentary schedule…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 2 months ago
The Rochdale by-election is hotting up
Rochdale's Member of Parliament, the Labour MP Sir Tony Lloyd recently passed away and a by-election to replace him will be held on 29th Feb. The whole thing has turned into a…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months ago
Will Sunak's breakthrough on Northern Ireland change his political fortunes?
Rishi Sunak has made the EU climb down further; they've agreed that Northern Ireland can freely participate in all trade deals the UK does with the rest of the world. I suspect…
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43 1
candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months ago
Conservative fortunes have been declining since mid 2021
Here is the polling graph: source Obviously there are ups and downs due to events - you can clearly see the dips due to partygate and Truss in the graph. But the…
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34 0
candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months ago
Could the Tories experience a Canadian style wipeout?
In the 1993 Canadian Federal Election, the ruling Canadian Conservative party went from 156 seats to just 2 seats. With opinion polls looking dire for UK Tories, some pundits…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 3 months ago
Do election campaigns make a difference?
The Conservatives, with the help of their Australian advisor Issac Levido, believe campaigns do make a difference. They're taking inspiration from Scott Morrison's unexpected…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months ago
Labour start the year with a 16% lead
Here is a chart of the average polls so far (the average is used so that the sampling errors of different pollsters cancel out): source At this point in the 1992 - 1997…
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41 1
candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months ago
Donations to the Tories surge in the third quarter
Here is what the Electoral Commission reported UK political parties received in Q32023: source The Tories reported that they'd received a bequest of £10 million from John…
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41 1
candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months ago
Voting intention by housing tenure
YouGov has done some interesting polling where they ask their polling panel their housing status (own outright, own with a mortgage, private renting or social renting). Here is…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 4 months ago
Is this chart the reason the Red Wall is so grumpy?
It's a chart of house prices (what else?!), from 2007 to 2021, adjusted for inflation (i.e. "in real terms"). It's worth pointing out that in nominal terms all house prices have…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 5 months ago
A breakdown of the UK migration figures
Last week the net migration figures for the year ending June 2023 were released. (Net migration is people entering the UK to stay for at least a year, less people leaving). It…
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44 1
candy49 (59)in #us • 5 months ago
My thoughts on Henry Kissinger dying
As a Brit, I'm really glad Harold Wilson kept the UK out of the Vietnam war (and the wars in Cambodia and Laos). It meant my dad didn't have his twenties ruined like the…
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candy49 (59)in #uk • 5 months ago
Is Rishi Sunak aiming for a Spring election?
The Autumn mini budget contained a number of surprises. The Chancellor cut National Insurance contributions by 2%. He also made some important changes to business expensing…
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