POV: BTC vs BCH, wild market

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

Few days ago we heard news about Segwit2X being cancelled, lo and behold bitcoin price suffering after news.

On top of that we have transactions backlogging more than 100k transactions and fees went up to ~10$ which will frustrate a lot of users waiting days.

On the other hand BCH (Bitcoin cash) pumping up, because it doesn't have backlogging issue and fees are low, hashrate slowly shifting from bitcoin to bitcoin cash.

What's my point of view about the situation, Bitcoin core promised that Segwit and following their path would solve major issues on Bitcoin (transaction backlogging, lower fees) but from market perspective nothing seem to be solved. And Bitcoin cash happened to solve those issues, but there is another hardfork happening on Monday 13th Nov, 2017 on Bitcoin cash which improves difficulty adjustment algorithm, not sure how this will be handled. Also some interesting points made by some youtubers that I recommed watching...

It is funny that many consider BCH as being alt coin but it is original bitcoin which has same genesis block and only difference is that it started to accept bigger block size exactly as described in Whitepaper. Market is also bigger community which speaks up when they exit from BTC to BCH or BCH to BTC. As of this writing BCH trading volume is double size of BTC and price is almost half of BTC price.

Back in July there was speculation/conspiracy theories about BCH taking over BTC, recent changes make you wonder if writer had correct basis on their claims.

I am not 100% sure that BCH will dethrone BTC and will get rebranded as being original BTC by companies that uses it, but it sure challenges the fundamentals. Because there are very reputable companies, BitPay, Coinbase, etc. with real customers in commerce and due to transaction backlogging they will have to make hard decisions to give confidence to their customers and stay on business without bankrupt/ruining themselves.

Note that this is not an investment advice, just point of view about current situation and my 2 cent on it, things change speed of light in crypto space...

What do you think about current market situation?

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good-karma,

Thank you for linking my YouTube video in this piece and upvoting my recent post. It should be interesting moving forward seeing what happens - last night was by far one of the most exciting nights in the history of cryptocurrencies. In my opinion, it really illustrated how emotional / greedy the market is and how driven it is by FOMO / FUD. I think a decent amount of Bitcoin's initial fall was due to it being overextended rather than fear over Bitcoin Cash. I am impressed with how resilient Bitcoin is, although this is far from over yet.

Best,
CI

It was. but it still won't work lol

 7 years ago  Reveal Comment

Why do you only have two methods? Apps on ether blockchain can provide interoperability. Even Dash at the moment as point of sale in certain stores. When I purchased my antminers from Bitmain I had to exchange it all in Bitcoin cash. More big internet transactions will be done on Bitcoin cash in the future. It sure was an interesting weekend that is for sure.

 7 years ago  Reveal Comment

Great post, my take is BTC will never die and will not be dethroned by BCH. All this confusion is perfect timing... BTC will be heading over 10k before you know it. This dip to 5k levels was needed imo. My guess is BTC and BCH will continue to coexist but serve different use cases, just as Bitcoin and Ethereum do.

If BTC cannot or will not address slowness and fees, they will surely die.

Adapt or Die.

Without correcting their issues, you see how fast BTC will become will become the "buggy whip" of the crypto-space.

I have 120 steem that I've been gathering for the past few months, I guess now would be the perfect timing to do some BTCH trades with them and try getting a small steem power up ♡

Steem way down, BCH way way way up? Yup, I'd say that's a no-brainer!
That sounds like a recipe for Insta-Dolphin!

Yeah, well that's why the STEEM price is trending a bit low. Although its still good hanging at 0.93. Should come back up even better after people make some profit on steem and re invest ^^

Steem Dollar is doing well right now, It's nice to have a stable backbone for the platform.

Steem is the spendable coin here, and SBD makes sure that your account value doesn't disappear.

Probably not the best timing to buy now after such a huge increase.

Totally agree with you ;)

I agree no chain will ever die but I also think there are a lot of misinformation and misinformed out there. It is hard to know exactly what is happening. Do you think there is possibility of BTC/BCH chain might halt due to miners shifting to other chain?

I agree confusion is at an all time high. I do not believe majority hashingpower will leave BTC for BCH though.

You mean not permanently? Because BCH presently has nearly 70% of all SHA-256 hashpower, mostly taken from BTC.

That would be a great waste as most of the world is starting to adopt BTC itself, it will not only make price complicated but will linger investments from big companies like DELL and Microsoft. Well at least that's what I think from a non trader point of view :D Might give better info once I actually pick up on trading.




~bluerocktalk🖖@thejohalfiles and @good-karma (great name btw). I have been very confused, as a newbie, but was less confused after my last interview with @stan. Its Posted if all of you want to see it, his perspective really helped me. There are several of them there. And at least 4 more to go! He helps un-confuse me at least :) @thejohalfiles, I still want to interview you on my show, what do you think?

Will take a look @bluerocktalk. If you have any questions feel free to ask away. I am always around to help out. Maybe one day I would be open to an interview we will see. Thank you very much for the offer.


It ok if you don't want to be interviewed, just looking for someone that seems to know their stuff!
~bluerocktalk🖖Thats cool @thejohalfiles, but how to i catch you? I feel like this is on another's dime here.😁

it's good trading

volatility is a great time to make money!

Maybe kim dotcom's tweet made a difference? caused a trend?

Interesting part is if crypto market is now linked / connected to twittersville :-)
Would this be "Insider trading" or "market manipulation"?

At some point the "laws" will catch up, or maybe they never will?
who knows? :-)

Yep agree with you

Also a great time to loose money.

i was thinking about "law" (regulation) and it seems to me there will be nearly nothing UNTIL there is large-scale risk exposure to public money. So at the time governments end up bailing out the unfortunate, then the regulators will have to get at it. Until then, the risk is probably
part of the ride.

I don't know lol

The problem with the co-existence view is that there is no stable equilibrium scenario between the two. They both disrupt each other in competition for the same hashes, in particular with BCH dynamically readjusting as hashpower is lost, with no such mechanism on the BTC chain. It is an irregular, unstable scenario for the two to remain alive and co-exist.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@jsonkidd/bitcoin-lightning-network-progress-all-you-need-to-know-about-it

If your'e curious about the lightning network in the midst of BCH rising here is everything you need.

as per @thejohalfiles. BCH for transacting on the chain. BTC for store of value. I wonder what will be like when lightning network is set up on BTC blockchain!?

Bitcoin will eventually hit 500.000 - 1.000.000 US dollars per Btc . Ethereum will also become huge . This is the future . The few that will remain patient will become rich . Buy some btc , buy some ethereum and forget about it for 5 years .. cheers

I think that mean some people are panic selling.

Agreed 100% - this fake BCH pump and dump is fooling nobody.

Wishful thinking. It's simple economics.

  1. BTC slow, BCH fast.
  2. BTC fees high, BCH fees reasonable.
    and the big one....
  3. Jan 1, BCH will be accepted and processed through Coinbase.

#3 is the gamechanger for BCH.

Yep agree with you)

What's fake about it?

i Think btc is gonna win to long way , cause a lot of country using btc now that starbucks like big company too never escape to btc..

Yes, indeed!

i totally agree with you BTC has come to stay

Agree @thejohalfiles, $10k till end of this year for BTC !

This post was created using STEEMP.NET poster for Windows.
For more informations about my STEEM apps, visit @steemitcore.

Great time just begins

I do not agree with you, I think that the least expected

Must say that I had not seen this one coming. Switched over some of my btc to a margin position BCH - BTC but am keeping a 15 minutes watch time because it seems more about FOMO than intrinsic value (which is there but in my opinion does not account for the whole movement)

I know BTC is the mother of all coins.
BCH just try to be a player on the market :)

My solution in such stormy days is this: just close your PC, and go...for walking. Or whatever.

DO NOT Try to trade

All things will settle down after while. And chances are - you will find out that doing nothing was really the best choice.
This may not be easy for everybody, but fits just nice for a true hodlers. :)

Some of my best investment returns have come from doing nothing.

i think to wait just one more day. After it, all back to normal.

This is pure market manipulation, that’s been happening behind closed doors. I’m not saying that one coin is better than the other, but this is very unhealthy for the crypto world in general. People who were thinking to invest in crypto will be very discouraged after they see what kind of a price manipulation can be done by just a handful of large players.

Indeed this is the case, however BTC has been very resilient to these attacks for a long time....and the evidence of that reluctance can be seen in the inertia that cryptos as a whole suffer from...

Nice post.. I also think that there is not a coin so far to overtake btc at this point. I could agree also that a split is going to happen in the future and the results will surprise us. What I think is that we have to start being democratic and stop splitting to every argument. I think that segwit x2 cancellation is a great example of democracy in the crypto community. We are all here to see what is going to happen..

I agree, you are right..there has been multiple occasions in a past that one coin wanted to take over bitcoin but so far no luck. But things are changing in fundamental level in user's mind and perception of the community... Interesting to watch for sure...

Is it possible that they could co-exist? BTC as a store of value and BCH for transactions? At least for the time being until one of them proves themselves to be vastly superior

It will be difficult for the entire community to suddenly swap to referring to BCH as Bitcoin and using it as such. All exchanges will need to switch, all merchants, all bitcoin CC's and all the work that has gone into Bitcoin ETFs to pull in institutional money will at least need to be revised and at worst scrapped. There is much more to this than simply what people believe the better protocol to be. At present price is simply based on speculation.

I agree about last sentence, not sure about swapping part though it can be complicated...

Really I have posted several times just this morning.... what is all the fuss.

I have BTC, it spawned BCH... like your children having grandchildren... It's great!

It is life success to keep growing, which becomes more successful (your children or grandchildren), it matters not... be calm and observe the growth of both.

Yes, keep calm and steem on! :)

BCH will win the game in long run, no doubt. BTC has lots of major problems that is not going to solve permanently even by Segwit2X

Absolutely right. Adapt or die.
Bitcoin is not immortal and it's not immune to market forces.

I dunno, man. though having just paid a $25 transaction fee so I could shift out some of my BTC into something else that'll stay more stable during this fiasco... nuts.

i thought the same

Exactly, but you will ended up waiting BTC transactions for few hours/days if you don't pay high enough...

I paid the highest/fastest, as it was only a couple bucks more, and it still looks like it'll take hours or days...

All these people in the comments thinking BTC is immortal. It reminds me of the Titanic. Bitcoin being overtaken by another crypto is just deemed impossible because it never happened.

Not saying this will happen with BCH, but the reasoning from people why it won't does not sound very logical, much more like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Spot on!!! Bitcoin is not immortal, and it's not immune to market forces.
If BTC refuses to adapt, it will die.
I have no problem with the Segwit2X implementation being delayed, but I refuse to buy into the idea that it's been cancelled. It has to be addressed, or it will die.

Bitcoin has been the identity of the cryptoworld.

As m writing m listening to "nothing gonna change my love for you...."
I belive it is just the waves that making the ship unstable....bitcoin is not titanic.....bitcoin is calpathera ship the 'saviour'. No diplomatoc play...Bitcoin wil b here to Fly.
Thanks
@good-karma @steemflow

Bitcoin is not immortal.

Bitcoin's high fees and slow transaction rate are going to be it's downfall if it is not addressed.

I keep hearing how Segwit2x has been "Cancelled". If anything, it's been delayed (and anyone who works in tech knows project dates slide all the time).

The situation is very uncertain right now... that was unexpected only two days ago.

I can't help but think the cryptocurrency markets are too tied to Bitcoin and it's forks. The markets have been crazy and extremely volatile, quickly passing between mountains and free falls. I don't think think there should be a thrown to take. In order for the cryptocurrency markets to mature we need to move away from btc and its siblings.

i dont know to much about cryptocurrnecy man! but im afraid that this shit is going to end up soon! like a super huge pyramide!


#getrich

I concur with your opinion. Adoption? I have yet to see Alpaca socks or even pizza being sold for BCH.

things change speed of light in crypto space... that's true!

crazy market!

Bitcoin will eventually be replaced by another technology. Whether Bitcoin Cash will do it, only time will tell. In my opinion, Bitcoin Cash right now has better technology and therefore has a better chance of rising quickly in price. Bitcoin needs to step it up soon or else it will meet its demise.

rsz_1rsz_motivation.jpg

With the rate at which BCH is growing, it just need another day of 150% jump to overtake BTC price.

This is crazy!!
Bch is #2 and if it keeps shooting up like this, it can be #1 in just a day or two

Good post, I think I need about 30% to invest in BCH and 70% leave in BTC.

True holders gonna hold.

Got lucky got some bitcoin cash a day after it jumped

The thing is, dumb people dumping their BTC for BCC don't take in consideration that by doing that, they play the game of Gov's . . If you buy bitcoin cash, you are betting that China wants it to dominate. It's backed by a lot of money from China controlling its price and supporting its network....

I always visit your blog because you inspires me. Do what you do. Thank you very much for sharing inspiring content.

Cheer Up!

  • from Clean STEEM activity supporter

Bitcoin cash is a big risk be away from it for a while
Follow me friend for for free & Top Accurate crypto currency signals..

Just another pump and dump as we have already seen, institutional investors and retailers just know about BTC, my bet is that it crashes to a 4600/5000 support level, when it reaches that point, I will start to place splitted buy orders

Here is another reason why BTC has much better properties than all the rest and store of value is at the moment the most important thing... The Bitcoin Standard this is a must see...

This is a great tropic. a lot of whales in the crypto community have been dogging bitcoin cash since its inception. I have heard very persuasive arguments that cash is the real bitcoin because it still follows the three core directives that Satoshi Nakomoto set. something about bitcoin got rid of the signature to make more room in the blocks. That is all a little over my head though. I think bitcoin gold really made people uneasy about future forks. I personally don't think a hard fork is bad but, having forks every six months is not good for anything. had bitcoin gold never happened, i think segwit 2x would not have been called off. i think we will still see a segwit2x fork but the market needs time to readjust and settle down. It may only be a matter of time before we see a BCC fork too. I personally don't really have a dog in the fight, i will adapt to whatever the market consensus pushes forward. In my opinion , Bitcoin will never be used for an everyday currency. It is not capable. i doubt it will ever be dethroned as the default transition between fiat and crypto though. I will always hold some bitcoin as a long term investment and all that the low rate of it right now means is it is a great time to buy. I think everyone knew that the price of bitcoin was gonna drop substantially after segwit 2x and altcoins were gonna rise. people were holding bitcoin to raise the rate so they got as much B2X at fork. that didn't happen so people bought altcoins at great prices. it think BTG and the cancelation of B2X created a little BTC fud so people looked to the next best thing, BCC. I think that BTC and BCC will both continue to grow. I read a comment about litecoin not Bcash taking over for bitcoin. Litecoin is much better suited for merchant payments and everyday purchases with high speed transaction and confirmation times. Vertcoin and Grostlecoin are also perfect for instant purchases. The fact of the matter is that the crypto of mass adoption probably hasn't even been made yet.

Really well thought out post, I enjoyed how you articulated your thoughts and it personally resonated with me. I will give you future sbd when i grow and some.

I made alright gains selling bch before it plummeted!

I don't think we've ever seen anything like this before. I would normally say "lol just hodl or buy more btc" but my BTC transactions are getting huge errors.

Due to unbelievable hashrate loss, BTC blocks are at 20-minute intervals. Additionally, transaction fees are skyrocketing and it's taking forever for things to go through.

I don't know what I'm going to do, but I assure you that after months of hodling I don't plan to lose my investment ;)

My question is, how low will BTC go?
Over last 12mths, peaks dipped by about 1/3 not long after (eg china exit)

so will the BTC un-forking create another 1/3 dip?
monday will be interesting..
a great volatile market, to make money (or loose it if you mess up!)

BTC has been very resilient, I can't see anything dethroning it. Not even the Bcash (Bitcoin Cash) attack. It is just a few rich people (Roger Ver and Jihan Wu) that are pumping BCH. Soon the tower will topple and BCH will be heavily dumped. Let's be realistic. BCH is not as good a store of value oas Bitcoin, and it is not as good a transactional currency as a lot of other very good alt-coins. Bitcoin is Bitcoin because it has survived a number of attacks on it in the past and just gets stronger after every failed attack. This attack will also fail. Keep a lookout for new Bitcoin all time high prices by the end of the year :)

People is changing to BCH because of the transaction fees but what people do not remember is why Bitcoin has only 1 MB size.
The answer is security, Bitcoin is much safer than BCH.

I think the currency market today is very difficult to guess, especially for the crypto currency.
until now the crypto currency is still dominated by bitcoin, although now the market price of bitcoin is declining, but still the bitcoin to be the best.

Thank you, you writing is very good. I like it.

I don't like the current market situation at all. Coming from 20 years dealing in the financial world I can tell ya one thing. . Extreme Volatility after a 60% rally in BTC to make new highs in such a short period of time and then a major correction like we are seeing now. . . NOT GOOD. NOT GOOD AT ALL. . .

The whitepaper mentions nothing about block size, furthermore the 1 Mb hard limit was coded into existence by the author of said whitepaper. What you have just written is misinformation given by the BCash attackers, but at least you referenced the paper so that people can go and read it and see that there is no mention of block size.

If Bcash replaces Bitcoin then the whole experiment can be considered a failure. A decentralized money with a CEO is not decentralized at all. What we are seeing right now is a one sided war, Bcash is trying to take over bitcoin. Bitcoin isn't even fighting back, it doesn't need to, the system is designed to be resistant to this kind of attack. Not immune, because we still have to weather some volatility and low transaction times, but resistant.

BCH will not replace BTC. The moment BCH is less profitable to mine than BTC the miners will switch back to BTC. Mine will.

As for the debate on Bitcoin as a payment system, Sorry but Dash and Monero will beat out bitcoin and it's spawn (including litecoin). Dash has a better governance and obfuscation system than Bitcoin and it's clones. Monero has ultimate privacy and a better mining system then the others.

This BCH pump is clearly just an attack on Bitcoin. The mass of backlogged transactions in the Bitcoin network are mostly spam and do not prove anything about bitcoin scaling problems, rather it shows a directed effort to attack the network. And as many are fond of pointing out that Bitcoin has no CEO to sue, there are the known developers, who like screaming "FIRE" in a crowded theater, are responsible, and CAN be held accountable.

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