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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 days ago
Is the world heading towards recession?
We've seen some shock moves by central banks in the last week. First, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points to 0.5% (one of the…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 24 days ago
Is France in trouble?
French 10-year bond yields briefly rose above Greek 10-year yields. Greece, if you remember, was Ground Zero of the eurozone crisis of 2010 to 2014. Here is the chart:…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 25 days ago
German bond yields are climbing
Germany has had exceptionally low bond yields for a long time. They actually dipped to minus 0.5% in 2019, which meant bond holders were paying the German government for the…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 29 days ago
Which countries will be hit hardest by tariffs from the incoming Trump administration?
President-elect Trump has vowed to put a blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States. Here are the countries Deutche Bank analysts think will be hardest…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
Japan and China sold a record amount of US Treasuries in the third quarter
So now we know why US Treasury yields were soaring in the lead up to the US Presidential elections - two huge sovereign countries, Japan and China, were dumping some of their…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
A look at the house price crash in China
China’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source As you can…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
Will Germany reform it's debt-brake?
The Scholz coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) collapsed last week, when Olaf Scholz fired his Finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP. The issue was the debt-brake. Scholz wanted…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
The oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential election
Here is the chart: source It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support line. OPEC…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
Is the American economy really that strong if the Fed cuts rates in two consecutive meetings?
So the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points following the 50 basis points cut in September. That's a cumulative 75 basis points. The last time we saw cuts like this was at…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
What does Trump's win mean for the US economy?
Well, the bond markets think his Presidency could be inflationary, leading to higher interest rates. Here is what happened to the 10 year US Treasury bond yield on Nov 6th as the…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
US 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%
Here is the chart: source They'd been heading downwards, right until the Fed in it's wisdom decided to cut the base rate by 50 basis points on Sept 18th 2024. And then…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
Bond markets react negatively to the UK budget
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, tried to leak most of her budget in the weeks leading up to it, so that both markets and voters had a chance to digest it in bits…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
VolksWagon is in trouble
VolksWagon was famously rescued by the occupying British in the post-war "British zone" in north-western Germany, and has continued uninterrrupted ever since. But the trade…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
Sales of existing homes in the USA are the lowest since 1987
... 37 years ago. Here is the graph: source What is causing this? Simple: many existing home owners re-mortgaged during the Covid era when mortgage rates were 2.5% or…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
Foreign holders dump US debt
Here's the percentage share of US treasuries held by foreign investors: source So, what's going on? First of all, who holds US debt? The City of London holds about…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
The next US President faces a huge interest rate bill
Interest paid annually on the US National Debt already exceeds the defence budget. But things are about to get worse. The US tends to borrow short term (5 years or less) and a…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
De-dollarization didn't happen, de-euroization did
When the Ukraine war started, and Russia was removed from the SWIFT system amongst other sanctions, all the talking heads started chattering about de-dollarization. Surely Russia…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
US Government spending is out of control
Take a look at the following chart of US Government spending as a percentage of GDP (the data goes all the way back to 1798) source Usually spending spikes during crises;…
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rose98734 (62)in #gold • 2 months ago
Gold and inflation
It's long been known that inflation is a function of the money supply. Or more precisely, a function of the velocity of money (how fast money circulates in an economy), and the…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
The European Central Bank cuts interest rates for the third time
... even though inflation hasn't yet reached it's target of 2%. It's currently 2.1% and is likely to rise this winter because of the rising cost of electricity and natural…
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