Interesting dynamics already afoot. If your subjective odds don't match the money odds, some arbitrage is needed.
You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
Interesting dynamics already afoot. If your subjective odds don't match the money odds, some arbitrage is needed.
Back in 2016 betting in May I got odds of 10/3 in the UK on Trump and made a nice win on £1000 stake. The odds this time round are already lower, but Biden is still the favourite in all the places I've looked except here.
We are smarter than the official oddsmakers, all they have to go on is the lame stream media outlets. And last time, Killary was a heavy 'favorite' too, but so was
Brexit. BREMAIN, (it lost cuz it was a horrible name LOL!!!) Anything this important, well, TPTB can't let is go it's own road. They have to TRY and sway it their direction. No amount of money is too much to leave these things to run their natural course.I live in the USA 'bellweather county' for Presidential Politics, and unless there is massive fraud, Trump Wins Again! He's way ahead here. he got a 15 point win here in 2016 and barring the big 3 blue states, (rampant fraud) we would have been a great indicator on the popular vote too. When the networks declared Trump the winner, he had a ONE MILLION VOTE LEAD. The the closeted votes in NY, Cali and Illinois came into play. Total BS but 'officially' he 'lost the popular vote' and won the electoral college. Google and Facebook Analytics, and more importantly WEB BOT all predicted a Trump runaway WIN, popular and EC. Web Bot said his algos could not, however, predict FRAUD. He nailed that one!
Nice!
Having said that... I should place another bet on Trump elsewhere and hedge here with a bet on Biden :-)
Congrats on the big win, BTW!
Even the dims who hate Trump don't have much hope of defeating him, they are running Scared. Their formerly airtight voting blocks have been eroded heavily by Trump's economy. Plus, the covid blame is not sticking to him at all. Except by people who pinned their hopes on the bullshit investigations that went on for 4 years now... even those people are worried. They've thrown everything at Trump Including the Kitchen Sink and nothing is working. His Covid response was several orders of magnitude more intense than anything anyone had ever done in the USA EVER. I think he will make it, again.
The CATO INSTITUTE has estimated that up to 62% of Trump Supporters will not tell a pollster, a media outlet or even co-workers that they support trump. They will just go and vote for him in November. Even the heavily Democrat over-sampled polling is showing a dead heat right now. The convention has not helped Biden and Kamel-Toe one bit yet, or they would be crowing about that every day. Convention viewing was DOWN by 48% in days 2 and 3 of the 4 day event, and that spells disaster most likely.
The smart money is betting on one thing for sure: There is another disaster of epic proportions looming between now and November, we have this ting called OCTOBER SURPRISE in American Politics. I expect it will be a real donnybrook 🤦♂️😝🤬