Tomorrow, we see the latest hard fork take place on Steem. This will be an update that brings the Steem Proposal System into being while also altering economic payout system of Steem.
We have discussed this at length with hundreds (thousands) of posts detailing the changes. I will not go into them here.
Source
What I did want to share with everyone is the idea of being patient. This is a technological upgrade. While we all hope things go smoothly, there are apt to be glitches.
Any developer will tell you the time that most of the bugs are usually found is when things go live. No amount of testing matches flipping the switch.
According a various reports by individual developers, there was a great deal of testing done to make the transition as smooth as possible. However, for anyone who used a Microsoft product in the last 20 years, a stream of updates are often required.
That is not to say something will happen. I only want to point out that, as a community, let us not lose our shirt if there is a bug or two. The Witnesses and Steemit Inc developers are well aware that there are a lot of eyes on this, hence I would believe they are prepared to do what is needed if something should arise.
Worst case scenario, if the update does not perform live, the Witnesses can switch back to the previous version until things are worked out.
A fork is a big deal which is why they are not done on a weekly or monthly basis. This one was obviously in the works for some time meaning the different participants prepared as much as possible. All that is left is to go live and see what happens.
It was almost a year (10-11 months) since the last hard fork. This is the biggest change in my two years on Steem. Whether one is for the initiative or against it, we also need to be patient with the results. Even if things go off perfectly with the fork, it will be months before we are aware of the impact.
Thus, try to resist the temptation to draw conclusion too soon. Like most things in life, when something is new, it takes time to adjust. Many of us operated under the same system for a number of years. That will not be the case as of tomorrow.
A lot of thought went into this and we have an expansive use case with Steem-Engine tokens and "tribes" forming. This added layer can help to mitigate things on the Steem level if one so chooses.
The most successful people are those who see opportunity where others only experience peril. I have no idea how things will unfold. What I do know is Steem-Engine added another level of activity to Steem in regards to rewards. This presents people with some options.
At the end of the day, most everyone on here wants the same thing. The growth and expansion of Steem is desired. We want to see the platform grow with Steem being one of the more successful blockchains there is.
With the technical foundation that was laid, including the addition of MIRA, Steem has the ability to go up against most blockchains in that regard. Toss in a community that, for the most part, will proceed forward no matter how things unfold, and we can see what is being erected here.
Life everything that takes place in the technological world, sometimes a little patience can go a long way.
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It can't be worse than after HF20, can it?? lol.
Indeed lol.
I actually think it can... Not saying that it will be, but I am very skeptical.
I am definitely not as convinced as some others are, that this HF will counter bid bots and bring back a lot of manual curation again. I am also skeptical due to the statement within the official announcement.
I hope I am wrong, but this sounds like the exact opposite of what we should have done. At least in terms of on boarding new people and to keep our newcomers.
Time will tell.
They chose a different approach. I am not sure yet if it is a wise one, but it could be...
I think they want to cater to the investors first, then get everyone and their uncle on board.
This HF is clearly hurting onboarding new small accounts and it is done on purpose.
We need to push the price up to get FOMO again, then they can proceed with exponential growth of the userbase. Imagine if Steem is worth 10$ for a prolonged period of time because investors love the coin. Every small account >500 SP will be able to make a decent buck.
Yeah, I hear you. However, I don't think that is possible as long as @steemit continues to power down more than 325K per week. I might be wrong though.
Also, even though I can see how this potentially could benefit us in the long haul, I think it's likely to do more harm than good, as the existing Steemians, especially "wealthier" accounts that already have a decent amount of SP will continue to grow larger, in an even faster pace than before due to reward changes, long before onboarding of new users would begin... And that usually doesn't look good.
Those are often the typical "red flags" that makes people anxious and skeptical, which ultimately would become the biggest obstacles for us to get new people to join. And truth to be told, one of the biggest (if not the biggest) problem we have right now, before HF21, is that newcomers leave when they struggle to earn...
That being said, I hope I am wrong, and I truly hope that HF21 will be as good as many people claims it to be.
I don't think the rich getting richer is a problem in the short term. It just should not stay this way in the long run.
Why do I think this? In the last year, whales and orcas lost a combined 25% in terms of steem holdings to dolphins and minnows. That means reverting this change will not be a problem in the short term (1 year).
Taskmaster and others have shown countless times that the distribution of steem was working under HF20 rules. Tomorrows changes might revert this, at least in the short term.
Valid concerns @hitmeasap.
I do believe some of the counter effects, if they reveal themselves as you mentioned, can be offset via SE and, in another 6-7 months, with SMTs.
Rewards are rewards and people can swap those other tokens for STEEM which can be them powered up.
That said, I agree with you. It seems counter-intuitive to how things should go. I worry the smaller accounts will get fried in this but we shall see.
Maybe the math does, indeed, work out better for all involved.
Yeah, hopefully people will truly realize how tribes and communities can and eventually will have a great positive impact on Steem in general, with tokens and all.
Who knows, this might be exactly what we are looking for, so I try to stay positive... But I remember the results of the previous HF's so I remain skeptical.
Would be really cool to see more manual curation again, that would certainly boost the rewards for some authors. Not so sure if it works in the long haul though, as people are used to be passive or non-active and still earn a bunch due to auto-votes and delegations.
Let's hope for the best.
I will say I think this HF was tested more by both Steemit Inc and the Witnesses as compared to HF20.
How it will unfold, we will now in a little over 24 hours.
All we can do is keep our fingers crossed and hope any glitches are minor.
We want steem to embrace millions of people. ;)
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Yes we do @chesatochi.
I feel that is not something that will be seen until we see the on-boarding issue resolved.
Getting 400 or so people approved a day means a couple million might take a while. The RC pool should give the potential to applications to sign up thousands a day if they have the demand.
Even if that is the case, we are not going to see that for a while yet.
I'm more concerned about economical aspect rather than technical...
I will do my best to operate in a way that'll make steem more attractive but if big guys don't change their behavior we're fucked... I mean, steem is worth around 0.18 and personally i see it as an opportunity but obviously not everyone seem to think that way... Nevertheless thumbs up!
Absolutely @ocupation.
The economic and platform impact will not be realized for a while. We will see how things look after a minimum of 90 days. It will take that long to sort things out to see how behaviors change, if at all.
The technical is something we will know about if a few days.
Of course, if there is one glitch, we will most likely see a number of posts about how the sky is falling.
18 cents is an opportunity in my book...added a bit more this morning.
Technical part is currently irrelevant as i assume we have pretty awesome tech guys that'll eventually find piece of code that is missing and replace it with "good one". The only thing i consider as a good one is the fact we're constantly trying to improve the platform (regardless of the time needed for us to finally understand). That is the only thing that matters :D
I totally agree with you when you said that most successful individuals are those who see opportunity when many perceive threats, HF21 is no different. Let's see how it goes!
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I feel like there wasn't near as much technical changes in this hard-fork. Mostly just a few economic tweaks.
I remember when people completely lost it after the last hardfork because they weren't able to post for a day. Pretty much expecting some hiccups but like you said this is normal.
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