5 Price Predictions for 5 Top Cryptocurrencies —  2018

So, you’re sitting at your computer with money to invest.

<p dir="auto">You have made some good money already in the market, but you want more. <p dir="auto">Cryptocurrencies have reached a record $600 billion in market value after the recovery, with the inevitable $700 billion mark right around the corner. <p dir="auto">The price movement of top currencies remains a mystery. But it doesn’t have to be.<br /> THE PAIN OF UNCERTAINTY <p dir="auto">Cryptocurrencies are volatile, irrational beasts. <p dir="auto">Simple methods of forecasting grossly over/underestimate the potential of a volatile currency. <p dir="auto">For example, moving averages are used frequently to estimate future prices. Moving averages, however, suffer from many pitfalls that make them poor estimators of volatile markets. <p dir="auto">Every great and successful investor has a plan. You will add one more tool to your arsenal today.<br /> A BETTER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CRYPTO PRICES <p dir="auto">In my prior article about estimating the movement of Bitcoin Prices, I spoke of a method that is used frequently in the stock world to estimate prices. <p dir="auto">This method is a Monte Carlo simulation using the geometric Brownian motion model. <p dir="auto">I won’t cover off on the full methodology here, but essentially I am going to: <pre><code>Get historical daily prices for 10 top cryptocurrencies Calculate daily returns Simulate a year Simulate a year many times <p dir="auto">By the end of the article, you will have the following: <pre><code>A one-year simulation of top cryptocurrencies Likely price range of each cryptocurrency A downloadable model to complete yourself <p dir="auto">A note on forecasting, simulations, and recommendations: Monte Carlo simulations are to be used as guidelines and tools, not as gospel. I am not offering financial or investing advice.<br /> BITCOIN<br /> What is Bitcoin? <p dir="auto">You know what Bitcoin is, stop it.<br /> Simulations<br /> <img src="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmSNGxspL5u7bo9sTBpvj9CZgiFhxFcN1z5LUUKDteT8rs/c2.png" alt="c2.png" srcset="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmSNGxspL5u7bo9sTBpvj9CZgiFhxFcN1z5LUUKDteT8rs/c2.png 1x, https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmSNGxspL5u7bo9sTBpvj9CZgiFhxFcN1z5LUUKDteT8rs/c2.png 2x" /><br /> Verdict <p dir="auto">We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin prices will fall between $4,179, and $273,028 with a median of $31,380.<br /> BITCOIN CASH<br /> What is Bitcoin Cash? <p dir="auto">From the Bitcoin Cash project website: <pre><code>“Bitcoin Cash is peer-to-peer electronic cash for the Internet. It is fully decentralized, with no central bank and requires no trusted third parties to operate.” <p dir="auto">Really, it was an additional currency that was created after a fork from Bitcoin core.<br /> Simulations<br /> <img src="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmNTBCiMKWGpL3siEGCyXHWw4QaCmn3VT4ebmMUCw3BKez/c3.png" alt="c3.png" srcset="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmNTBCiMKWGpL3siEGCyXHWw4QaCmn3VT4ebmMUCw3BKez/c3.png 1x, https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmNTBCiMKWGpL3siEGCyXHWw4QaCmn3VT4ebmMUCw3BKez/c3.png 2x" /><br /> Verdict <p dir="auto">We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin Cash prices will fall between $94, and $94,225 with a median of $2,899.<br /> ETHEREUM<br /> What is Ethereum? <p dir="auto">Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs smart contracts: applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference. <p dir="auto">Ethereum has been busy recently. Multiple steps have been pushed in motion for the upcoming large change — reaching a new consensus method. <p dir="auto">From Jordan Daniel at ethnews.com: <pre><code>Ethereum’s Byzantium hard fork was only one half of a two-part process designed to transition the decentralized application platform to a new method for reaching consensus — proof-of-stake. The next hard fork, called Constantinople, was recently discussed during an Ethereum core developer meeting and could include Vitalik Buterin’s Casper update. <p dir="auto">Simulations<br /> <img src="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmdjZzfDMJ2XTXj3vPJJVo7sFRxE9JeEgqDuyvPp88hWrm/c4.png" alt="c4.png" srcset="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmdjZzfDMJ2XTXj3vPJJVo7sFRxE9JeEgqDuyvPp88hWrm/c4.png 1x, https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmdjZzfDMJ2XTXj3vPJJVo7sFRxE9JeEgqDuyvPp88hWrm/c4.png 2x" /><br /> Verdict <p dir="auto">We can be 95% certain that Ethereum prices will fall between $706, and $30,062 with a median of $4,791.<br /> EOS<br /> What is EOS? <p dir="auto">EOS is a blockchain-based, decentralized operating system, designed to support commercial-scale decentralized applications by providing all of the necessary core functionality, enabling businesses to build blockchain applications in a way similar to web-based applications.<br /> Simulations<br /> <img src="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmXs1ygEitZwXxWS1GcJmMK67jS4nRoN5ynG1nvRbYQ2Rp/c5.png" alt="c5.png" srcset="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmXs1ygEitZwXxWS1GcJmMK67jS4nRoN5ynG1nvRbYQ2Rp/c5.png 1x, https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmXs1ygEitZwXxWS1GcJmMK67jS4nRoN5ynG1nvRbYQ2Rp/c5.png 2x" /><br /> Verdict <p dir="auto">We can be 95% certain that EOS prices will fall between $9.58, and $14,898 with a median of $307.<br /> LITECOIN<br /> What is Litecoin? <p dir="auto">Litecoin is a peer-to-peer Internet currency that enables instant, near-zero cost payments to anyone in the world. Litecoin is an open source, global payment network that is fully decentralized without any central authorities. <p dir="auto">Mathematics secures the network and empowers individuals to control their own finances. Litecoin features faster transaction confirmation times and improved storage efficiency than the leading math-based currency. <p dir="auto">With substantial industry support, trade volume and liquidity, Litecoin is a proven medium of commerce complementary to Bitcoin.<br /> Simulations<br /> <img src="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmbP6jnyhBq1LqJY4NtAFgtkzvg5HrfC6iuWs173eAzLf4/c6.png" alt="c6.png" srcset="https://images.hive.blog/768x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmbP6jnyhBq1LqJY4NtAFgtkzvg5HrfC6iuWs173eAzLf4/c6.png 1x, https://images.hive.blog/1536x0/https://steemitimages.com/DQmbP6jnyhBq1LqJY4NtAFgtkzvg5HrfC6iuWs173eAzLf4/c6.png 2x" /> <p dir="auto">CONCLUSION <p dir="auto">Whether you are investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or SpankCoin, it is imperative to have a plan. Most notably, a worst-case scenario. <p dir="auto">The Monte Carlo simulation is a fantastic way to get a range of prices for a cryptocurrency. And after reading this, you can see how the final values change drastically depending on what you are looking at. <p dir="auto">I urge you to download the sheet and try your own hand at simulating different coins. The sheet is setup to pull in every single coin from CoinMarketCap.<br /> Cheers, and happy hunting!