While I agree with the fundamental analysis for Steem and Steemit, I kinda don't so much with your view on SBD. Imo there are two effects to that:
- The price of SBD kinda front-runs Steem because from Steem (Power) you can generate SBD - that means that people will start buying Steem when SBD price is high, etc.
- Otoh you can generate Steem from SBD through buying votes, so a high Steem price should also lead to a higher SBD price.
This is kind of a general pattern, but its economics obviously also depend on the amount of Steem and SBD out there as you mentioned. Therefore, the pretty much parity we've seen will surely not prevail forever...
Thanks for reading and sharing your views, I appreciate hearing your perspective.
I'm not entirely sure that the price of SBD front-runs STEEM. You do in fact generate more SBD from having a higher SP, and a rising SBD price will surely cause more people to want to power up and start posting. But, with more and more people powering up, it requires more and more SBD to be printed in order to pay those people. As the volume increases, it will cause downward pressure on the price of SBD. This should make the price go down, but SBD is being bought/hodled for some unknown reason.
Though you can generate STEEM from buying upvotes with SBD, you also earn 50% of that increased payout in SBD that also must be printed. Thus, causing the volume of SBDs to increase even further, which, under normal economic theory, should dilute the price of SBD.
Again, SBD is a crypto and despite all of these downward market pressures, it continues to have an elevated price. I'm not mad about it at all, in fact I wish the price of SBD would continue upwards as it allows myself and many other posters to power up more SP.
Thanks again for your perspective, it really is valuable and I hope to hear your perspective on my 2 points as well!
Great discussion, thanks for your reply!
Yes, I think we're also discussing short-term and long-term effects here. Short-term the dilution effect of SBD isn't as strong as e.g. the "soak" effect of new people coming and wanting SBD and Steem. Longer-term this will look differently, as you described.
However, I may adopt some of your payout-strategies once the amount I'm making becomes meaningful :-)