Trump's Playbook

Scenario

Considering the way 2020 has gone thus far, one could be forgiven for outwardly pondering the worst case scenarios this election cycle in the United States. It would be foolish to ignore Trump's borderline fetish for hardline authoritarianism. Indeed, a bipartisan committee has already been meeting to discuss scenarios in which Trump loses the election and refuses to concede. The meetings are called war games, and at least one conclusion to emerge from this thought experiment is the party that starts controlling whole departments of government has a big advantage.

We would be wise to heed Trump's own words about his lust for power and his vision of government. When discussing Article II of the US Constitution, which defines the executive branch of government, he claims, "Article II allows me to do whatever I want. It gives me all of these rights at a level that nobody has ever seen before. We don't even talk about Article II."

Trump's love for authority is matched by his disdain for the election process. He has consistently refused to promise acceptance of the election results, and his message on the matter leaves us wondering whether he has any intention of allowing facilitation of an election. He calls mail-in balloting "fraudulent" and says universal voting by mail will be "very bad." Readers should not miss the abundance of recent news stories ringing alarm bells about the dire straits of the post office.

If Trump is unwilling to leave, the process of removing him could be a legal one that drags out in the courts. Despite his obvious failures in other areas, Trump excels on this turf, and has been busy appointing judges over the last four years. "You always get sued" he says.

Playing Field

The popular vote is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3.

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Electoral College representatives are scheduled to vote on Monday, December 14.

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Congress is scheduled to certify voting results on Wednesday, January 6.

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Playbook

"If no candidate receives a majority of the electoral vote (at least 270), the President is determined by the rules outlined by the Twelfth Amendment." The House of Representatives will be tasked to vote first. The House has 435 voting members. "All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, and the office of President of the United States will be contested" on November 3rd, 2020. If no presidential result emerges from a House vote, then we could enter a legal gray area.

Powers

Trump's executive powers are vast and have been amplified in recent decades by both political parties' blank checks for endless military campaigns and the slow erosion of US citizens' civil liberties after 9/11.

Trump can hire and fire anyone in the executive branch and assume supreme operation command over all national military forces.

Trump can issue executive orders, which have the binding power of law for all federal agencies.

Trump can pardon and commute federal offenses.

Trump can withhold information from the public, Congress, and the courts in the name of national security.

Trump can enhance his powers by declaring an emergency.