The current volatility and weakness in financial and crypto markets is induced by FED tightening and by the current geopolitical uncertainties in the Ukraine.
I like to give you some scenarios of what might happen so that you can make up your own mind and be better prepared for what could be coming.
1.) What are the chances of a potential war between Ukraine and Russia?
If you go by game theory the tensions should not result in war as both the EU and Russia (and of course Ukraine) will be losers. A invasion of Russia will at least be followed by harsh sanctions by the west and maybe even with some limited military involvement. Hence energy price would explode, which is very bad for energy importer Europa but Russia as well, as they could not sell their natural gas to Europe any more. Russia might even be excluded from the SWIFT financial transaction system and more. The US might be on the winning side as they would "help the EU out" with expensive LNG instead of Russian piped gas but a full out war in Ukraine would also result in big volatility at the financial markets which is not good for the US and global economy.
If the tensions vanish this should be supportive for financial and crypto markets and hence give support for crypto prices.
So lets assume the decision of going to war or not is made not by rational thinking but by other means we are not fully aware yet and a full out invasion of Ukraine will happen.
2.) What happens to the crypto market if there is a full scale invasion?
To come up with a scenario what would happen to financial marktes / crypto markets in such cases, we should look at the blue print of the corona induced shock in march 2020. While the markets first reaction very likely would be "cash is king" tanking all assets including crypto (again), a few weeks later we should (again) have a different outcome. As it happened in 2020 the FED and the governments will flood the markets (again) with fresh printed money, lifting asset prices (again) and by that massively supporting the crypto bull.
So either way, medium / long term this should not kill the crypto bull, but it might be wise to have some cash to buy possible dips.
3.) So why this conflict after all?
The tension (but not war) is good for domestic politics in Russia and the high energy prices turbo charge the Russian economy. At the same time Putin definitely has huge interest to not be encircled further by the NATO. By letting his tanks and army drive up and down the Ukraine border he massively lifts energy prices and makes his point in regards to the NATO clear...
Just lets hope those world leaders keep a clear head and rational mind! Lets be friends not enemies!
I don't think there's any chance of invasion. Posturing is all. But China is watching to see Sleepy Joe's reaction for a possible take over of Taiwan
yes... I agree with that... this feedback loop makes it much harder to predict how the US will react..
Jake Sullivan invented this BS to distract from his criminal activities in spying on Trump campaign in 2016.
Then various other war mongers in the US joined in. Russia has won without a shot being fired because the hysteria has forced out all the Western personnel and let Russia reassert its natural influence.
I'm sure Putin can't believe his luck.
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I don't think there will be any war. It's mostly fear propaganda used by the elites, now that covid is almost over. In case we will have one chances are the crypto market will tank for a while.
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I think that the crisis in Russia and Ukraine will negatively affect the cryptocurrency markets. Just as the Chinese government's view of Bitcoin is negative. Crises can also be adversely affected by monetary policies. Our scenarios are predictions that might make sense, but I think there will be some activity in Bitcoin in March.
How do you think about this now?
Wie siehst du es jetzt?
@ynwa.andree I will write a follow up soon