Early season form, the transfer deadline and who to transfer into your FPL squad

As annoying and pointless as the international breaks are, particularly this early in the campaign, they do give FPL managers a chance to pause and reflect on the early part of the season and the run of games to come.

Here's our analysis of what's past so far and what managers should be considering as we move into September and October.

image.png

Late transfers

The dust has now settled on another busy transfer window with a number of high profile deals concluded very late on. Moves which may be of particular interest to FPL managers include

Chalobah (DEF) - The 25-year-old was always likely to be on the move after being told that he had no place at Stamford Bridge under the new regime. The constant merry-go round of managers in West London plus a couple of unfortunate injuries have stunted Chalobah's development but there is a high-quality player there. He joins a Palace side who were defensively excellent towards the back end of last season and his lack of game time so far has already seen him drop to £4.4mil. That might prove a bargain if he can establish himself with the Eagles.

Nelson (MID) - Another talented Arsenal youngster moving to West London this summer is Reiss Nelson who follows in the footsteps of Emile Smith-Rowe. Nelson made his Premier League debut way back in 2018 but has always struggled for game time. Despite only playing 202 Premier League minutes in the 22/23 season, the winger returned 6 goal involvements. His style of play should fit in well at Fulham who were keen to bring in a player of his ilk to replace the outgoing Willian.

Ward-Prowse (MID) - JWP has been a favourite amongst FPL managers for some time, not least of all because of his season on season consistency. In the last 4 FPL seasons he's scored between 142 and 159 points. Of course a good deal of those points have resulted from dead-ball situations, so managers will be keen to see whether he'll take over corners, free-kicks and most importantly penalties from Morgan Gibbs-White who himself has enjoyed a strong start to the season.

Sterling (MID) - The highest profile signing of transfer deadline day was Raheem Sterling's loan move to Arsenal. At his peak, Sterling delivered 3 consecutive 200+ point seasons with City and he therefore had a price point to reflect that. More recently, that price has fallen to £6.8mil as a result of his lack of game time. The big question now is whether he'll get sufficient minutes to tempt managers in again. If he does, then he's currently cheaper than any of Arsenal's other attacking midfield options.

The underperforming v the over-performing XIs

The underperforming XI

Screenshot 2024-09-04 at 05.40.34.png

The underperforming XI is comprised of players whose underlying stats are not, at the moment, being transferred into FPL points.

Sa (GK) had a torrid time of it in the first 2 GWs conceeding 8 goals and making just 6 saves. The 6 he conceded against Chelsea saw him drop to the bench as new signing Johnstone (GK) came straight into the team. A swift fall from grace for a player who in previous years has been a popular FPL pick and still appears in 2% of sides this season.

At the back, it might seem unfair to pick 2 Liverpool defenders given that they've delivered 3 straight clean sheets. However if you're paying premium value then I'd assume you'd want more than just clean sheets. Neither TAA (DEF) nor Robertson (DEF) has managed a goal involvement yet this season despite having a combined xGI of 2.4. Liverpool's fixture list continues to look favourable over the next few games so managers will expect an attacking output to come sooner rather than later.

Milenković (DEF) and possibly quite a few other Forest players should be assets on FPL managers watchlists. At 1.95m tall, the big Serbian is an obvious threat from set-pieces but hasn't found the back of the net just yet despite recording xG of 1.0 in his first 2 EPL appearances. In fact, the big man failed to score for Fiorentina last season too, having had a good goal record for them prior to that. Can the addition of JWP to the Forest side bring out the best in him?

Into midfield and the obvious additions of Fernandes (MID) and Garnacho (MID) who have both been guilty of missing big chances for United in the first few weeks. Do you dare believe that this United side can turn things around?

De Bryune (MID) got a goal and assist against Ipswich but blanked against Chelsea and West Ham despite favourable underlying stats. The Belgian managed just 15 Premier League starts last year and only 28 the season before that so expect his workload to be managed as City embark on their European campaign and Foden (MID) returns to the fold.

Marcus Tavernier (MID) has long been a player I've had on my watchlist because every time I see him play for the Cherries, he looks dangerous. His stats this season suggest the same with expected goal involvements of 2.3. If he could translate this into points and nail down a regular starting place, he'd be great differential to have with current ownership of 0.3%.

I'd highlighted McNeil (MID) as a player to potentially consider as a budget midfield option this year but I'd imagine that not many managers are rushing to pick Everton players just now. It's pretty unfair to highlight McNeil as the under-performer, he actually delivered plenty of telling balls into the box and it's Everton's forwards that are not helping to convert those into FPL points.

Up top and Ollie Watkins (FWD) seems to be suffering from a Euros hangover with the missed chances v Arsenal particularly costly. Villa have a very good looking run of fixtures coming up but equally they embark on their first top flight European campaign for decades and in Durran (FWD) they do have viable options to at least rotate Watkins who has been subbed on the hour mark of all 3 games to date.

We finish with another Wolves player in Cunha (FWD) who is a top quality forward, capable of linking play and getting into scoring positions but who just lacks that clinical edge to really make him worthwhile pursuing in the FPL. Add to that, the fact that Wolves have a horror run of early fixtures. He might be one to revist come November by which time he could have found his scoring boots.

The over-performing XI

Screenshot 2024-09-04 at 06.54.10.png

The over-peforming XI is comprised of players who are scoring more FPL points than their underlying stats suggest.

First things first, stats like xG (expected goals) and xGI (expected goal involvements) are important factors when choosing your FPL team but they are not the be all and end all.

Ultimately, they are based on an average expectation across all players in a similar situation. It would be fair to say that Haaland (FWD), Salah (MID) and Saka (MID) are not 'average players', you would expect them to perform well above the standard and indeed they consistently do so which is why they are 3 of the 4 most expensive players in the game.

Whether Cole Palmer (MID) can claim to be in that category remains to be seen. Certainly he's priced as such and FPL managers are backing him to pick up where he left off in the 23/24 season, he's currently the 3rd most popular pick in the game.

You'd imagine that with all that credit in the bank and the fact that he's been left out of the Europa Conference squad that he'll be one of the first names on the Chelsea team sheet for the Premier League but where he actually plays will still be a point of interest. He started on the left-side against City and was fairly anonymous before moving into more central or inside-right positions in GW2 & 3 which is where he found great success last year.

One player who doesn't have quite that security over his position at Chelsea is Madueke (MID). A hat-trick from a game in which he recorded xG of just 0.57 was very impressive. His follow-up performance against Palace was less so. Over a million managers brought him in for that match and while Chelsea have a favourable looking run of fixtures, it remains to be seen if some of the other, better paid, options they have won't usurp him in the starting XI.

Nick Pope's (GK) price has shot-up as a result of managers flocking towards him and his generous 4.5mil price tag. Newcastle might appear more defensively sound this year but Pope has been forced into making 12 saves to date with the Magpies on the back foot in most of their games. You can look at that 2 ways. Lots of bonus points for saves or; ultimately teams will find a way past him to wipe out the CS bonus.

Sugawara's (DEF) consolation goal against Brentford might have aroused a bit more interest if he were priced at 4mil but I don't think many managers will be flocking towards a 4.5mil Southampton defender. Ait-Nouri (DEF) certainly has the potential for attacking returns but as we've seen to date he's not playing in a side that keeps many clean sheets.

The bigger name within the back 3 is Porro (DEF) who currently features in 35% of FPL teams. He scored away at Leicester and recorded 0.38 xGI away at Newcastle. Interestingly that xGI fell to 0.14 in the 4-0 home win against Everton as Spurs tweaked their shape and personnel. With Spurs porous defence and a tough run of fixtures then he'll need to keep up those attacking returns or managers might want to look at alternatives.

Further forward and we have 2 players left who are currently exceeding previous expectations in regards goal scoring. Danny Welbeck (FWD) has never hit double figures in a Premier League season and this will be his 17th try. Brighton are playing some nice football but whether Welbeck can continue his hot streak and remain fit is another question.

Similarly, Luis Diaz (MID) vastly underperformed his xG in 23/24 but has pulled off a couple of very neat finishes so far this season. If his and Liverpool's form continue then he's a very attractively priced player in a season where FPL managers are still looking to uncover a few bargains.

What does AI know?

There are lots of options for FPL managers to seek the assistance of AI when planning their teams. Here's what one of those services suggested as a wildcard team for the coming weeks.

Screenshot 2024-09-06 at 05.28.24.png

Interestingly it's gone for

  • A double up on Liverpool defenders and overall, 3 premium priced defensive assets including Gvardiol whose City team have a fairly tough run of games coming up
  • De Bryune in midfield. If he starts all of the next 3 Premier League games I'd be very surprised
  • No Haaland
  • No Chelsea players whatsoever despite a potentially decent run of fixtures
  • Not a single outfield player from Villa who have arguably the best run of games through the early autumn

What do you reckon? Are you smarter than the algorithm?

League updates

It's early doors but let's have a quick look at the various league tables and perhaps more importantly, who has gone early in using a chip or 2 to bolster their score.

Classic League

Some monster scores early on in the competition. @borran 's impressive tally of 259 points ranks him 30,299 globally which is some achievement given the millions of FPL players across the world.

@samostically is not far behind and he hasn't used a chip yet in acquiring 245 points which is very impressive.

We know that Haaland as Triple Captain in GW2 was a very popular and ultimately productive option for managers but it's interesting to see that a good number of sides towards the top third have also used other chips during the first 3 weeks. That might come back to bite them later in the season. It certainly gives those below them a chance to catch up!

RankTeamHive AccountTOTChips Used
1Hiveheadz@borran259Triple Captain
2samostically@samostically245
3Chris Football Club@hiveworld239WC1, Triple Captain, Bench Boost
4YAGMAN FC@yagman01237
5Skander@skanderh235
6Ref's team@sperosamuel15234
7Blue Balls@belemo232
8Simcard FC@akomoajong231
9Uwabbs FC@uwabbs001229
10HallAnd Oats FC@thoth442228
10Tangram@desro228Free Hit, Bench Boost
12Likodra FC@teofilex11228
13GunnersLoverFC@nwt93227
13Trinex fc@og-gamershub227Free Hit, Triple Captain
15Tilia@artniche225Triple Captain, Bench Boost
16FC McKane@mckane224
17Ifeyemi Fc@valchiz222Free Hit, Triple Captain, Bench Boost
17The Urge@kenzzi222
19Formidable Milano@damolexy222
20@BlockchainFPL@blockchainfpl221
21Legion fc@b0s219
22ARFANTASY FC@arfa217Triple Captain
23The Beast@iamchuks216
24Yahuzah@yahuzah215
25NONZ FC@nonsowrites215
26Emeka4@emeka4214Triple Captain
26Lazz@martinlazizi214
28INEOS REVIVAL@deniskj213
29Jungle Boy@george-dee212
30Suffragette City@talesfrmthecrypt211
30Happyboys FC@happyboy1211
32Kane and Unable@jmehta211
33rubilu@rubilu210Free Hit
34KELLYMAN FC@justfavour210
34Solat FC@reservedsingle210
36Mighty Fc@twicejoy210
37Herbae@herbae209
38Vickoly FC@vickoly208
39Tengo Rangers FC@tengolotodo207
40Ballgasms@preshpresh206
41Espressos@aaalviarez204
42Stevenson FC@stevenson7204
43Coldone@nasfyneboy92204Triple Captain
44SportsNerd@saf-ul-wahab202
45Kraken99@kraken99200Triple Captain, Bench Boost
46Micheal Fc@micheal87200Triple Captain
47ArgyeeChitthuFC@agct1226197
48Hungry Lions@gvkanten197
49Change NameNo Hive Account Linked195
50HIVE KILL STEEM@wlffreitas194
51Hadji@hadji192
52RHYDA@rhyda1190
5311 idiotsNo Hive Account Linked188
54Newton Heath FC@samirich187
55Hornstra XI@elvis123187
56foloxfc@thelonegreywolf184
57Dapomola fc@dapomolaaaa183
58Diistroyers@diikaan183
59Tricky Trees 2024@doombot75182
60Shamzy F.C@shamzy181
61Outside of TimeNo Hive Account Linked179
62Olawalium FC@olawalium177
63ACX United@pvmihalache177
64The Cella’s@blanchy176
65Holte Me Close@stuartcturnbull175
66racibo@racibo174
67Smiley Team@carita-feliz173
68Mollina United@femisapiens172
69Headies@Headies163
70The Dream Team@spidersilk162
71TGIF@gentleshaid158
72ALHNo Hive Account Linked152
73Creekside FC@pappyelblanco150
74The Amirians@amirtheawesome1139
75Barca@muka-vybz137
76Cygnus FC@donjaun135
77Holozing.com@acidyo134
78MonitoxNo Hive Account Linked127
79OG Squad@graat124
80Akatsuki@seki1123
81Wanderteam@kelvinpeters116

H2H Division 1

It's tight. It's very very tight! Most matches are won by a handful of points based on 1 or 2 choices that these elite managers make.

We're only 3 weeks in and no one has managed a 100% win record. @yagman01 are top and are the only unbeaten team in the division so far.

At the other end, it's been a tough start for reigning H2H champions @shamzy whose total score of 181 is well off the pace, as is that of @gvkanten who won the classic league last season but are 62 points off the top already this year. Plenty of time to go though!

RankTeamHive AccountPtsScore
1YAGMAN FC@yagman017237
2Skander@skanderh6235
3Simcard FC@akomoajong6231
4HallAnd Oats FC@thoth4426228
4Likodra FC@teofilex116228
6FC McKane@mckane6224
7Whyte FC@Ipalibo6223
8Legion fc@b0s6219
9INEOS REVIVAL@deniskj6213
10Solat FC@reservedsingle6210
11Espressos@aaalviarez6204
12NONZ FC@nonsowrites4215
13@BlockchainFPL H2H@blockchainfpl3232
14Lazz@martinlazizi3214
15Herbae@herbae3209
16Vickoly FC@vickoly3208
17Hungry Lions@gvkanten3197
18Shamzy F.C@shamzy3181
19Suffragette City@talesfrmthecrypt0211
20Creekside FC@pappyelblanco0150

H2H Division 2

By contrast, Division 2 has 7 teams who still boost a 100% win record!

That includes Lame Ducks who are 1 of 6 teams without a linked Hive account.

The first rule of Hive FPL is .... You can **definitely ** talk about Hive FPL! But, if you're going to share the joining codes with your mates then be sure to get them to sign-up to Hive as well so that they can claim their rewards.

If you know who any of these guys are then just drop a message in the comments with the Hive account and I'll link it now!

RankTeamHive AccountPtsScore
1samostically@samostically9245
2GunnersLoverFC@nwt939227
3Tilia@artniche9225
4The Beast@iamchuks9216
5Ballgasms@preshpresh9206
6Lame DucksNo Hive Account Linked9178
7Holte Me Close@stuartcturnbull9175
8Chris Football Club@hiveworld7239
9Hiveheadz@borran6259
10Ref's team@sperosamuel156234
11Blue Balls@belemo6232
12Formidable Milano@damolexy6222
12Ifeyemi Fc@valchiz6222
12The Urge@kenzzi6222
15ARFANTASY FC@arfa6217
16Yahuzah@yahuzah6215
17Emeka4@emeka46214
18Happyboys FC@happyboy16211
18Kane and Unable@jmehta6211
20Mighty Fc@twicejoy6210
20KELLYMAN FC@justfavour6210
20rubilu@rubilu6210
23Coldone@nasfyneboy926204
23Stevenson FC@stevenson76204
25Kraken99@kraken996200
26ArgyeeChitthuFC@agct12266197
27Hadji@hadji6192
28foloxfc@thelonegreywolf6184
29Dapomola fc@dapomolaaaa6183
30Olawalium FC@olawalium6177
30ACX United@pvmihalache6177
32Mollina United@femisapiens6172
33Headies@Headies6163
34The Dream Team@spidersilk6162
35TGIF@gentleshaid6158
36Jungle Boy@george-dee4212
37SportsNerd@saf-ul-wahab4202
38Tangram@desro3228
39Trinex fc@og-gamershub3227
40Tengo Rangers FC@tengolotodo3207
41Change NameNo Hive Account Linked3195
42HIVE KILL STEEM@wlffreitas3194
43Hornstra XI@elvis1233187
44Tricky Trees 2024@doombot753182
45Outside of TimeNo Hive Account Linked3179
46racibo@racibo3174
47Cygnus FC@donjaun3135
48Akatsuki@seki13123
49Hungry Lions@gvkanten1197
5011 idiotsNo Hive Account Linked1188
51The Cella’s@blanchy1176
52Micheal Fc@micheal870200
53RHYDA@rhyda10190
54Newton Heath FC@samirich0187
55Diistroyers@diikaan0183
56Smiley Team@carita-feliz0173
57ALHNo Hive Account Linked0152
58Barca@muka-vybz0137
59Holozing.com@acidyo0134
60MonitoxNo Hive Account Linked0127
61OG Squad@graat0124
62Wanderteam@kelvinpeters0116

Good luck surviving the weekend with out the Premier League!

Sort:  

I agree! The domestic season has only just started. Can’t see the point of this international break especially after the Euros.

It's painful. There is a place for international football but it's at its best and most popular when it's a tournament football so why not just have the Nations League in the summer and use it as a qualifying tournament for either the World Cup or Euros?

!BEER

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Pedro is a good prayer and Brighton new coach will bring the best out of him

Yeah, I think he'll benefit from less rotation this year too

!BEER

Rotation really help player basically challenge from team mate

245 points without a chip is incredible 😭😭😂✨🔥

Yep he's smashing it. Long long way to go though

!BEER

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Joao Pedro is definitely on my watch list.
I'm waiting to accumulate at least two transfers and would look at the possibility of bring him in and returning Salah, most likely at the expense of Saka.

Arsenal have got a tough run of fixtures. It's difficult to drop a player like Saka because he is a consistent performer but Salah definitely has the better run of fixtures. Feels more likely that he's going to get double digit scores over the next few weeks

!BEER

I'm hoping Salah can hold up on those double scores for one more week till I re-sign him. 😂

No doubt, Saka is an invaluable asset, but the prices this year, especially for Haaland, who looks like a must have, have made other decisions tougher.

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Milenković is going to be immense for Forest this season and even if JWP can’t put the ball on his head a couple of times I think Elliot Anderson has already shown he has good delivery. Training with MGW and JWP can only improve him.

Definitely time to look at some Villa players too

Yeah I had Elliot Andersen in my team last year as my 5th midfielder because he was cheap and after all the injuries at Newcastle he got a chance in the first team. Then of course he got injured too 😅

He’s a good player and I don’t think Newcastle really wanted to sell him. It’s another PSR deal where he can be viewed as pure profit

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It's going to be an interesting season. I have not really looked at the European formats but I think more games on early so the teams with no European football might be worthkeeping an eye on.
Cheers for the transfer of Ward-Prowse I missed that, mind you the international break has put me looking af fpl on hold!
Here's to a great season!

Since Salah's first season at Liverpool, the other FPL season I've started without a fit Salah in my team is this current one, and I'm regretting that already. As expensive as Salah and Haaland may be they'll probably end the season with most points total. Leaving one of them out is proving to be a mistake - at least, for me.

Hoping for a better ending to the season this time around 😂😂🤣