An inverted yield curve is one of the more predictable indicators of recession.
It is not as clear as it seems. When the curve inverts, the incentive to lend longer term is diminished. The steepness of the curve also tells a large part of the story.
Many are watching the yield curve, something that might not happen. While recession still could be in the cards, the perfect recession warning might not be ideal in this instance.
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It looks to me from that chart it’s a fore teller of recession. I wonder what some other signs are. Is the stock mark in irrational exuberance levels? Here in Australia we have low interest rates and still our housing bubble is bursting.