I have made a list of all major Bitcoin corrections since 2012 including the number of days it took to reach a new all time high again.
The heavier the correction, the longer it took to achieve a new all-time-high again.
The latest correction (or crash if you will) was a pretty heavy one: 70% in 51 days.
Of course it is not yet certain if we have seen the bottom, but I do think so. On to a new all time high! However, the last time we saw a 70% correction was late 2013 when it took almost 3 years to make a new all time high again. The fundamentals for the crypto space as a whole are much better now in my opinion, so I don't think it will take 3 years again, but it might take a little while though...
What do you think? Will we see a new all-time-high this year?
If you ask me, YES! I predict Q4 2018.
All major Bitcoin corrections since 2012
| Date High | Date Low | Days | High | Low | Drop | Date new high | Days to new high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-08-17 | 2012-08-19 | 2 | $16,41 | $7,10 | 57% | 2013-01-21 | 155 |
| 2013-03-06 | 2013-03-07 | 1 | $49,17 | $33,00 | 33% | 2013-03-18 | 11 |
| 2013-04-10 | 2013-04-12 | 2 | $259,34 | $45,00 | 83% | 2013-11-06 | 208 |
| 2013-11-19 | 2013-11-19 | 0 | $755,00 | $378,00 | 50% | 2013-11-22 | 3 |
| 2013-11-30 | 2014-04-11 | 132 | $1.163,00 | $339,79 | 71% | 2017-02-23 | 1049 |
| 2017-03-10 | 2017-03-25 | 15 | $1.350,00 | $891,33 | 34% | 2017-04-30 | 36 |
| 2017-05-25 | 2017-05-27 | 2 | $2.760,10 | $1.850,00 | 33% | 2017-06-06 | 10 |
| 2017-06-12 | 2017-07-16 | 34 | $2.980,00 | $1.830,00 | 39% | 2017-08-05 | 20 |
| 2017-09-02 | 2017-09-15 | 13 | $4.979,90 | $2.972,01 | 40% | 2017-10-12 | 27 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2018-02-06 | 51 | $19.666,00 | $5.920,72 | 70% | ??? | ??? |
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I personally don't believe Bitcoin will ever see ATH again.
The fundamentals for some parts of the crypto space are good. The fundamentals for BTC have been terrible for a long time. Reality is catching up on that.
Example of bad Bitcoin fundamentals:
The profitability of mining is in sharp decline. This means miners must sell more of their BTC earnings to cover their costs, which means higher effective inflation.
The decreasing profitability of mining is causing an impact on hashrate as well, which has now stopped increasing and may be beginning to decline.
The current paradigm with full blocks means that in a declining hashrate envirnoment, the network performance (potential throughput) itself decreases. This has the potential to lead to several negative feedback loops. Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism is not well suited to handle declining hashrate, it happens much slower than when hashrate is increasing.
Of course, the most important fundamentals are users and usability. While there are more Bitcoin buyers than ever before, there are fewer users and transactions. Those buyers are mostly Coinbase users, not Bitcoin users. Usability has only declined in recent months, although there is some relief in the past couple of weeks.
Good points. The one thing that might keep boosting bitcoin's price is the fact that it is essentially the face of cryptos, the one crypto that is becoming a household term. Over the past few months, I've spoken with quite a few people who still have no idea of cryptos; only that there is something "new" called bitcoin.
Therefore, it's highly likely that the (inevitable) growth in the crypto space will be primarily in bitcoin. That may result in another year or more of phenomenal increases in its price, regardless of any outrageously high transaction fees and regardless of delays in transaction-processing time.
After that, it might be superseded by Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Steem, or who knows which coin.
That legacy has certainly brought it far. But there were points in time when 'Atari' was synonymous with video games and AOL was synonymous with the web. I don't think that growth in the broader crypto space will inevitably prevent its collapse for long.
Hi @majes.tytyty and @demotruk, thank you for the rich discussion! I'd love to see Bitcoin climb again, not necessarily for personal investment in Bitcoin, but my investment in other coins that are following Bitcoin's trend and movement. With that said...
Right now, with cryptocurrencies being in a space of "unknown" to the general population and that some have heard the word "Bitcoin" more than "Cryptocurrency", it makes a lot of sense that Bitcoin will go up in value being the most common gateway to the crypto world.
Once that changes, however, and the paradigm shift goes in full effect, with greater amounts of crypto-educated people, Bitcoin won't be necessary especially with better coins offering high speed transactions, safer exchanges, business platforms, and little to no transactions fees.
On top of that, with bitUSD on the Bitshares DEX and USDT by Tether maintaining their ties to the US Dollar for stability in the crypto world, BTC won't be necessary for the crypto world to lean on.
I really appreciate the insight and facts you two are dialed into. Thank you for your information and I look forward to reading more!
Steem On!
I still have an Atari... ha.
Bitcoin's name is where a lot of its value is. It has a strong brand because it was the first crypto, has a cult following, and is frequently discussed by the mainstream media. All those factors make it the first coin people think pf when first considering investing in cryptos.
It certainly doesnt hurt that bitcoin is also a preferred exchange coin for ICOs and smaller exchanges.
Umm I am sorry but you misunderstand the fundamentals of bitcoin. The mining profitability is quite irrelevant for the economics of bitcoin.
Fundamental aspect are more how many people are joining and buying btc.
People buying on exchanges aren't users of Bitcoin, they're users of exchanges. Like users of brokers. Imagine if a company argued "look at our fundamentals, people are buying our stock". It would be a sign to run for the hills. Those buyers are just looking to sell when the price reaches a certain point, they don't form any meaningful part of the Bitcoin network effect until they're actively using or accepting Bitcoin in exchange for goods and services.
Joining BTC and using it is an important fundamental, the most important one. But there are plenty of others which impact the coming supply and demand for Bitcoin.
If you think mining profitability is irrelevant, do you think how many transactions can be processed per day is also irrelevant? Do you think new supply on the markets is irrelevant? Both of these are directly affected by mining profitability.
I believe that any user of bitcoin is a bitcoin users. It does not really matter where you hold the bitcoins. I started out as an exchange user and now hav most of my coins off exchanges.
And transactions will happen no matter how much miners and mining power there is.
Bitcoin has many problems and challenges but some miners losing money and people having coins on exchanges are not the big issues imho. however if you believe in your convictions just sell all your coins and you will communicate you dissatisfaction to the miners.
I think we will not wait till end of 2018 , BTC may reach all time high and exceed 20k by June 2018. Usually the major hype comes around Jan and June every year.
@penguinpablo
@josteem
Just my opinion. ( or/and wish) lol
agree
Finger crossed 🤞
Yeah, right...
This is a great post - thanks for putting all of this info together.
Friendly regulation, more Segwit penetration, Lightning Network, crap ICO bans, U.S. Stock market crash and likely recession and and msm coverage will take Bitcoin to highs that will surprise us all. Can't mess with this honebadger!
ayeee the honey badass badger!!
Has anyone calculated the average for the total days it will take to reach a new all-time high?
169 days :)
Nice data dig! Tbh, I wish I'd done it. :)
according to me it will take 4-5 months also government policy can effect it
Any answer to this is going to be sheer speculation. However, looking at past market trends BTC has dipped every year in Q1 for the last five years only to increase in price throughout the year.
Following this trend it’s entirely possible BTC could keep following the same and skyrocket again.
The market is littered with inexperienced investors who are going to spook easily and sell at the first sign of a dip. I believe with time some of these investors will become seasoned and stabilize the market.
It is funny how one correctly ignores historical trends only for history to repeat itself.
All of life follows cycles so why shouldn't investments? The only proviso is that Bitcoin itself could be considered unnatural (not by me), and even if it was the investment psychology, especially of all these newbies, should follow a cyclical pattern comparable to the moon, breathing, and Mah Jong
Unfortunately human decisions are not as predictable as the movement of celestial bodies. Trends usually emerge but those trends also eventually break at some unpredictable point.
Bitcoin is an example of the trend of fiat currency monopoly breaking. Before Bitcoin, a decentralized currency was just an idea, a generally unrealistic idea.
Once it feels safe again, it will grow quite quickly. It'll hit $20k by 4/15 and $30 by August in my ill considered opinion.
I predict ~14k by end of Feb, hitting the 20k mark again in late March through early April. You're crazy if you think it will take the entire year to hit 20k again...
One step at a time... and then people will start rushing in again.
For now, must see confirmation the bottom has been met. I believe it had, i.e. at the recent $7,500-ish. The immediate target is the psychological $10,000. I think it may take a while - attacks to break past which falter...and then finally breaks through. I'm guessing 2 months before we see this.
ATH according to coinmarketcap was 19895.1, not 19666
So many of you like that 666 too much here ;)
the beat # is the bitstamp price (which used to be the default) -- coinmarketcaps # is a composite, averaged price (i think).
It is an interesting thought to ponder @penguinpablo. I really had not given it any consideration.
Here is what pops into my head. We have a lot more players than we did in the past, most notably Wall Street. So while I would say we could be in a for a fairly long recovery, the itchy fingers there could move things quickly.
In most markets, it takes twice as long for an asset to move up as it does for it to go down.
For that reason, I will say 102 days....although I know crypto is like no other market.
Probably in the middle of 2018 we will see bitcoin at 20.000$ again.
Also, I'm pretty optimistic that Bitcoin will be at 50.000$ at the end of 2018.
Thanks for de advice @penguinpablo.
A year if you compare to past data, but there's lots of greedy newbies here now and they all KNOW that 20 k is possible. They also know that institutions will likely buy in after the price has fallen to maybe 4k, which is when the FUD will stop.
We have seen rises (and falls) of 2k within 2 days, it's just a matter of psychology... so I'm more interested in when the outright bear market will stop rather than when we reach 20k, but to answer a simple question in a simple way I'd say about half a year maybe.
waktu hampir 3 tahun untuk membuat baru semua waktu tinggi lagi. Dasar-dasar untuk ruang kripto secara keseluruhan jauh lebih baik sekarang menurut pendapat saya, Informasi yang sangat bagus. # @penguinpablo
Bitcoin can only rebound in a currency crisis. It was designed to function as money but scale-ability issues, volatility and envious governments will eventually undermine it. Its role in the monetary system will be diminished if gold overcomes manipulation.
We've passed the first "mainstream barrier", which imo is news/media appearance. Those have been (with regulation) the biggest newbie scarers of 2017/2018. Now, we're going for the beginning of the mainstream adoption. This step might take more than a year (even though i don't think so, we've all seen how 2017 went). Hopefully, BTC will get back on its feet before new updates like the Lightning network, so that those boost it even higher above 2017's clouds!
Bitcoin has really come a long way. More great exploits awaits Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies will soon take over this world. Musicians in Nigeria have already started accepting their payment in crypto. Thanks for bringing this to fore @penguinpablo
very nice
I hope Bitcoin will going to $20.000 again
Potentially Q42018 for sure. However, if the stock market also tanks this year, it may take longer. The correlation with stocks is increasing:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/bitcoins-correlation-with-stocks-jumps-to-2-year-high.html
I think it goes hand in hand with investor appetite for risky assests...and Bitcoin is one of the riskiest of all. Alternatively, people could see it as an alternative to stocks...but I'm not so sure of this.
Additionally, Bitcoin appears to be loosely correlated to the VIX (inverse).
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-08/extreme-fear-strikes-stocks-credit-crashes-10-month-wides
How can you show a meaningful correlation with a chart that shows a single day's data?
Good point....how about this?
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-wall-street-volatility-index-correlation-deutsche-bank-2018-1
The chart there is a bit better. Zerohedge has a bad habit of zooming in on charts and pulling the axes to make a link look stronger.
Here is your answer ;-)
2018 : Bitcoin Value Expected To Double
http://bit.ly/2mPt5k9
Vote me
Thanks for sharing, this is good stuff. I rarely resteem, but this post deserves it @penguinpablo!
I am curious whether the fact that we now have other financial instruments (futures) and much more adoption will change the 'pattern' after crashes that we have seen so far :-)
Market manipulation at its finest, there's going to be ups and downs along the way. In comparison to 2012-2017, we have seen a rapid if not volatile growth, followed by a massive drop.. HODL!
I think bitcoin will return to $ 20,000 again in the next few months
How for the currency of Steem or SBD do you think?
I will not go as far as to predict the exact lenght of the comeback...I think that it will be the 3rd or 4th longest comeback though...BTC is slowly losing its dominancy and it needs the at least LN to develop those nodes or AS...basically it needs a great "update" in order to convince people that it is not yet a crypto skeleton...I thik it has not said its final words for sure
According to the chart, this time around will be at least 3 years. This is so unexpected. Thanks penguinpablo for doing up this statistics for us! Upvoted!
I think BTC will hit 20K in April
Legit questions to ask at this point - obviously it's going to take some time. However, the important thing to not that while speculation fueled the price emulation to new heights and the correction, people cannot avoid the topic of Bitcoin in the news.
The governments are taking notice and communities are taking notice. That means that ultimately a larger number of folks are going to find the good information along the way. They'll be buying in and HODLing on the way.
I agree that upward momentum will return as other commenters have added here. There's just too much attention to think that people won't figure out how to evaluate the positive mechanisms not only on a monetary level but also for change in their community.
Amazing...interesting your post,,,Thanks for sharing. good luck.
I hope it goes high very soon than expected
you've been doing it for a long time, and you are very optimistic, optimistic is the capital for success.
Extracting trends from human decision making events such as market pricing is a dangerous endeavour for investing but potentially lucrative for speculating.
Nice post! I also believe in a new all-time high this year, but as you said it was a long and heavy correlation and it will take some time to stabilize and then achieve a new all-time high!
This was a very interesting chart, @penguinpablo. I also think it will take a little while to get back to a new high, but hopefully it will be way less than 3 years! I guess that we are back at an all time high in under one year.
ATH according to coinmarketcap was 19895.1, not 19666
So many of you like that 666 too much here ;)
thanks for advice
Am not very knowledgeable about the crypto world, but from what you have just showed me, I think it's going to go high again.
Yes you are right that it will take a while to reach a new all time high but not 3 years. In my opinion, it will make new high in 2018 as crypto currency is getting famous day by day. In fact, next is the crypto era.
The statistics indeed speak for themselves. I had refused to digest the fact that it might take a while for bitcoin to get back to a high. But am starting to come to terms with it. I feel it will take beyond this year to hit another all time high. Probably we might see one in early 2019.
The long term cycles seem strong for bitcoin,
The Bearish trend would remain for a period of six months or so, but you never know. let it be over soon and things be at a normal streak @penguinpablo a major upset it was, and has affected the new crypto enthusiasts thus loosing them.
Interesting question. Here's a possibility, based on the below chart.
It took BTC just over 2 weeks to rise from $10,000 to over $19,000. (Nov 30--Dec 16). Subsequently, it took over 6 weeks for the price to drop below $10,000 (Dec 16--Feb 1).
So, the rise was faster than the drop. And a cursory glance at the trends in crypto valuations over the past year makes it clear that the trend is upwards -- and rapid.
Given that, I would not be surprised if we saw another rapid rise, this time eclipsing $20,000. (That said, we cannot forget that the dizzying rise over the past year was surprising. So, who knows where, when, and how fast it will move.)
I think no one is able to predict what the crypto market will do in 2018 or even in the further future. Having that said bitcoin can easily gain $1,000 within less than 24 hours. So next week we could have a new all time high. Other possibility is that the bears are right and it will fully collapse.
For now I gamble on $50k before end of 2018.
Patience is the key for success in Cryptocurrency !
#HODL
Right now, it's BUY BUY BUY.