Nothing to see here

That pretty much sums up the BTC market today and likely for the short term future. Pattern one mentioned yesterday (symmetrical triangle) busted... Pattern two ascending wedge; not busted yet, but most likely will if we close below $9200.

As I stated yesterday I'm sitting this one out as this it the time when people get hurt trying to play pick the bottom, buy in and only see it reverse against them taking some more capital with it. I have been checking the charts in all time frames and don't have anything of substance to report other than we are still in the midst of a moderately server correction.

The weekly has an MACD/Signal line cross to the downside and only one red bar thus far and we typically have 2 or more. Interpretation is that basing my assumptions on the historical patterns of BTC, we could keep playing the wounded animal slowly dying game till mid to late February.

As you cannot determine capitulation until it after the fact I doubt we are there yet as selling volume is not epic at the moment and belays hope by HODLers of a quick turn around.

We may still be in the denial phase to some extent. A good explanation can be found here:

Eventually the market tops out well below its previous high and starts a new downleg carrying it to lower lows. During this phase the fundamental news significantly worsens and investors realize that that a bear market is in force. This is the phase of concern. During this phase many investors sell, but others hang in, feeling that the bad news is discounted and that a bottom is near.

At this point the market may rally again as many observers feel that the decline has ended and that a new bull market has begun. This rally, also characterized by weak breadth and low volume, subsequently fails and heads down. --(hmmm, failed rally, heading down.. sounds vaguely familiar?--@pawsdog)

At this point the majority becomes exceedingly bearish and throws in the towel, fearful of further declines and the potential disappearance of their assets. This is the capitulation phase, when stocks are sold on fear and emotion rather than on rational analysis. It is at that point that the market is finally ready to make an important bottom.

–Source: http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1348&menugroup=Home

And Here is a solid short answer to what they actually are:

Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel.

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp

So the question is how much pain can you take before throwing in the towel? If you are already out and sitting in cash then you have nothing to worry about.

Corrections by their very nature are designed to create such immeasurable financial pain that people finally throw in the towel. As we have yet to reach $8,000 there are still a ton of HODLers from the November 28th drop to that level hanging in there that have yet to feel any real pain and suffering. The previous major drop buy in was the $8000 to $5300 drop on Nov 12th, so those HODLers are likely hanging in there as well. If price continues to drop and HODLERS see profit margins approaching a loss expect many to finally give in and create a selling tidal wave, bringing us to new lows.

At current a lowest low of sub $6,000 at the height of this thing is not out of the question based upon longer time frame support levels.

Also a fail of the second pattern (ascending wedge) with a close below $9200 typically brings follow on losses that average an additional 10 percent decline which would begin to rattle the $8000 HODlers and force them to begin liquidation.

Lastly and the only chart of the day today...

This being a 30 minute chart and of no use other than to demonstrate a point.. Recoveries need 'Volume', real volume, solid interest and confidence. We had a drop to $10,176 and it turned around at that point (now at $10,600), but this is "Fools Gold".. Look at the volume..Buying volume on the turn failed to exceed selling volume of the session preceding it, was less than half of the two large sells earlier in the frame and is slowly beginning to taper off as confidence wains. Determination, nothing more than a stop gap on the way to another lower low. Likely result will be a failed rally at first resistance point of $11,200 or lower and a decline to a lower low than $10,176.

Interpreting Price and Volume Action

"Price action reflects investor sentiment. If a stock is rising, investors are eager to buy; if it is falling, investors are eager to sell. But for a move to be valid, the stock price action must be confirmed by volume. As technicians say, volume goes with the trend. Volume shows how much conviction investors have in a trend. When you multiply the number of shares traded by the current stock price, you get the total dollar amount that investors are willing to put at risk. Low volume means few investors are putting little money at risk. You cannot trust such price moves, as they are fickle and can easily reverse."

Indecision or Uncertainty

"When things are unclear many investors tend to stay on the sidelines and stop trading, so the volume dries up. But if some traders feel compelled to act out of boredom or to entice others to act, their trades can push prices up or down in a slow market. Other traders may act prematurely, hoping to be ahead of the crowd. But if others do not follow those moves, stocks can quickly return to their previous levels."

Manipulation

"It is easier to manipulate a stock when its volume is low. All a manipulator needs to do is execute a few carefully timed trades to create the illusion that a stock is moving so he can get others to buy or sell. The goal is to raise the price if he wants to sell and to lower the price if he wants to buy. If you are suckered in by such a move, your position can quickly turn into a loss as the stock you just bought suddenly reverses course on increased volume."

Source: https://finance.zacks.com/mean-stock-price-goes-up-down-little-volume-2497.html

Exercise caution and patience and just wait it out until the time is right to buy. I do hope that many of you used the highs of the most recent failed rally to move some Alts around or head for cash as it may be another bumpy ride down.

My Previous Analysis:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-21-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-20-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-evening

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-19-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-18-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-16-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-15-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-14-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

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