I'm looking at Bitcoin from a much more conservative angle. Just because something on average has done something in the past, doesn't mean it will continue in the future. The S&P 500 has a 7% increase per year over multiple decades, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we should expect it in the short or medium term to even increase.

If Bitcoin maintained consistent hash power and all of its value was correlated with hash power, it would double every halvening (approximately every four or so years). I don't think it's reasonable to expect Bitcoin to continue doubling every year without dramatic weakening in the dollar.

But you are right that Bitcoin has significantly higher speculative upside than I was getting at in the post. Bitcoin is insurance plus upside which is the best kind of insurance that you can get. I think Bitcoin will continue to have speculative upside until the network effects are saturated (most of the population utilizes Bitcoin or Bitcoin derivatives in some way). So, I stand corrected.

These next couple years are going to be a critical time for Bitcoin to see if it does what everyone has been saying it should do.

It will as long as hash power and network usage remain static or increase.