I understand.
Keeping a level head during immense success is a rare trait. On my side I judge my progress and influence by recording and building averages over time.
You get very high reward posts and very low reward posts. The average regular day post eventually reveals itself and the more you post, the closer it can get to explaining to you what to sort of expect... over 10 posts.
The variables that control the outcome, as you say, are many. It is not solely dependent on the quality of the post, the rate of your engagement nor the amount of HP you have, but rather a blend of those things together with your relevance.
I have watched some small account start at zero this year and work themselves into positions in the community where they get a job role to fulfill and their rewards scale so much faster than the lone accounts trying a bit of this and that.
See you around!
!PIZZA
Curator bias also plays a role too. You can make the nicest post all in the world but if you are disliked, it's a tall order to get them to change their minds. It's also not a secret that some users can get noticed faster by being well connected. I don't really put much attention on those parts as these are things beyond my control and it's not worth losing sleep over.
Thanks for your time and input, take care and enjoy the weekend :>