It Is Easy To See Success After It Happened

How often had we lived by the rule "hindsight is 2020"?

We all have done it. There was an opportunity before us and we passed. Of course, we were smart because things were not going to work out with that project. Look at all that was wrong.

This seems likes a national pastime in the crypto world. People have a lot to say about different projects. Now, that isn't to say every project is worthwhile. It is not. In fact, the majority are junk.

Nevertheless, the idea of grouping everything together is dangerous.

We see a lot of people posting statements such as this:

"I wish I invested in LEO earlier."

Well, why didn't you? Was it kept a secret? Certainly there was not some type of exclusivity to it such as having to be an accredited investor? If memory serves me, it was a project anyone could have gotten involved in.

Yet few did. For a year, it was one of those things that languished. Sure, there was some stuff happening but the token price kept dropping. It went from .30 HIVE all the way down to .025. In USD terms, that was about half a cent.

Instead of taking a closer look and jumping on board, many simply called it a "sh*tcoin". It was garbage.

The view is much different today. Ironic how quickly that changed. In fact, upon the introduction of wLEO, people who were involved in the project yet did not heavily invest started stacking. They were loading up at .30 or .40 HIVE. Why is that?

A lot was happening without much impact on the token price. Yet, suddenly, things turned on a dime. What happened? Leofinance did not instantly become a Facebook, or even a SeekingAlpha. In fact, the numbers are still rather low overall.

What took place is a number of people kept active, doing all they could to continue the push forward. Slowly, post-by-post, the numbers steadily grew. For a long time, the growth was for tag-seekers and token scalpers. Nevertheless, the push was being made.

Why do I bring this all up?

Simply because we see the same thing with Hive.

Notice the title of this article: it is easy to see success after it happened.

Leofinance is the perfect example. Everyone who is near that project can see the potential. The initial success level is breeding even greater heights. And notice how quickly that all took place. Leo went from a "sh*tcoin" in the minds of many to the hottest thing on Hive.

There were people who were commenting about how "there was nothing to push the price of LEO higher". After all, "why would anyone invest money into it"?

Sound familiar?

We saw a host of problems with the project, some of Leo's making, many outside their control. It is what happens. Yet, in spite of it all, steps were taken to prevail. The journey was not an overnight process although it might look like that from the outside.

This is not an isolated example. Everyone would love to own Tesla at $18. Or Amazon at $60. Or Apple at $7. Those are all prices that those stocks were sold for at one point.

Did you get in at those prices? The answer is most likely negative. It is the reality that most of us did not. Hindsight makes it easy to see our lapse in judgment yet, at the time, there were a lot of risks associated with those opportunities.

Elon Musk gave Tesla a 10% chance of success. Steve Jobs was actually fired by Apple. Jeff Bezos, himself, when accepting a $250,000 check from his parents for seed money, said that it was probably going to be lost.

Yet these are some of the biggest success stories in the last 25 years.

Does this mean that Hive is on par with those entities? Of course not. However, there is a lesson in there. For many, the proverbial "grass is always greener" idea lives in their minds.


How often do we hear about another project in cryptocurrency that is going to be the next great thing? Over the past 3 years, how many were going to revolutionize some aspect of the world or our lives? Considering that the entire industry has not achieved that at all, we can surmise that was all propaganda. Nothing in crypto, thus far, has revolutionized any industry.

That does not mean it won't happen because it most likely will. We are still in the early stages. There are a lot of challenges each project is confronted with. Hive is no different.

Yet people are still sour on HIVE. They think it is going nowhere but down. After all, "why would anyone invest in this token"? Similar sentiment as existed with LEO.

It is easy to refer to the thousands of reasons why Hive will fail. However, it must be pointed out that it only takes on reason to succeed.

Tesla only had the Roadster when it began production. Apple was a two-bit computer company until the IPod was introduced. Bezos and Amazon upended the retail world by not selling every product but simply offering online books.

Perhaps the best story in this century is still unfolding before our eyes. Bitcoin did not have a rocking start. Many on here were around in the early days, wanting to get involved but running into roadblocks. Those who remember the Bitcoin world around 2012 know how much of a pain in the ass it was to just buy the token. It was not an easy asset to acquire if you lacked technical skills.

Of course, that peaked with the Mt. Gox hack/scam that left many holding nothing. That was a crushing time for Bitcoin and the entire start up industry.

Fast forward to today, the story is much different. Bitcoin is over $30,000 a token and the industry is on fire.

All of us would have loved to buy Bitcoin under a hundred dollars. The question is would you? Be truthful. Ignore what is now known and base it upon how things looked at the time. With the knowledge then, things were far from certain.


Sure a couple thousand dollars in 2013 going towards Bitcoin most likely made one a millionaire today. Easy to recognize that after the fact. Yet the path to Bitcoin success was not an easy one. There were thousands of reasons why not to buy it.

The point is people are doing the same thing with HIVE. Certainly, there is every chance they could be right and I am totally wrong. That is what makes markets. Nevertheless, when the overwhelming majority agree, there is either something major going on or a tremendous opportunity. The examples used here showed amazing opportunity.

Time will tell who is right. Years down the road, we will look back with our "hindsight" eyes and tell what the proper course of action was. Were the ones dumping genius or were they foolish? Will they be filled with regret?

There are a whole bunch of people who are on Leofinance today who "wish they got more". Of course, there are a whole bunch of other tokens people are glad they did not touch.

And finally, there are some that look like garbage today that will surprise us and turn into the "next LEO".

For all the reasons why something does not work, there only needs one breakthrough that leads to success.

It is easy to see it after it happened but very difficult as it is occurring.

How will HIVE look when we look back upon it with our future eyes.

If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and rehive.

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Intrigued by concept and inner workings with BTC got involved, glad I invested sad some was extorted. Hive still a great place to be.

Hindsight is always a problem, not spending time researching all possibilities bites you later. Excellent content once again.

Hive will explode sooner than expected. Posts are picking up again. It looks like the altcoin cycle started as well. Both these things are indications that retail is coming back.

I am not sure how soon but I know there is a lot of development taking place. This will eventually translate into more users which will be more demand for the token.

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Number of Hive dumped on exchanges is still rising though.

Yeah, this has to start turning otherwise I am wrong.

But also hive needs a bit more leniency with this because it can't be held on ledgers and other cold storage wallets. The hive I decide not to power up, I just keep on exchanges, even though I have absolutely no intention of selling.

The reason for that is because I am afraid my active key gets hacked and that all my liquid hive gets stolen from my wallet. The savings feature is good for security but sometimes I don't login for more than 3 days.

Well, why didn't you? Was it kept a secret?

Probably the BEST part in this post

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Opportunities are right there and people were even posting about it. Some paid attention, most did not.

It happens. However, usually the naysayers are the loudest not just passing on it but blasting it.

Of course, how does that viewpoint look now?

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I am just super glad that I held on to all my airdropped LEO and even earned more by curating for a year before it got really popular. And now I am using my chance to load up as much Hive as I can afford because most of my online time is connected to this blockchain anyways. First Steem and now Hive have given me so much, it just makes sense to strengthen my hand now.

First Steem and now Hive have given me so much, it just makes sense to strengthen my hand now.

I agree with this totally. Over the time, I just getting growing my bags. The worst time to try to load up and grow is when things take off. By then it is too late for the massive gains.

Hive gave me a lot too, which is why I am willing to sink or swim with the ship. I will be here to the end. LOL

There are so many different ways to benefit from what is going on with Hive. The great part it only keeps expanding.

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I may not have had money to get in when opportunity came out. So when I got my stimulus I put some towards the opportunities I wanted in on. Sometimes I just have to wait, not a bad thing.

Love it, love it. Even worse than hindsight is for me not taking action on foresight. Most tokens, coins, projects I believed/believe in are doing really well. I never had the means, or made the means to make my foresight a reality.

Where does that leave me? Pushing forward and making the most out of where I am and things are.

Who will say I wish I got Leo at 5 cents next year?

100 percent w, reblogged and tweeted.


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Not having the means is a much different story. If one lacks them, there simply is not the opportunity to get involved. The same holds true with not knowing about something. Many were not aware of Tesla in the early days, as an example. After all, we cant know about every new project or company out there.

That said, when we are presented with something, we have to decide yes or no. Risk is certainly a barometer that people use. Many, even if they knew about an opportunity like Tesla or Amazon would not have gotten in; it isnt there cup of tea. Warren Buffett is a prime example of that.

However, in the end, even he looked foolish calling Bitcoin "rat poison". It is one thing to pass on an opportunity but something else to degrade it when it is on the path to success.

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Great article,and fully agree. Learning from past mistakes can probably help in not letting a future good opportunity go unnoticed! As for me, still bullish on Hive!

When you make bitcoin an example in your analysis, you already won. It is super easy for people to lament about how they wished they got in early,really given they knew, how many would have.

Interestingly, during this festive break, I had a lot of conversations concerning crypto, one common statement was people wishing they bought bitcoin early realizing how much it had appreciated now, then I ask a question, if you bought 100 bitcoin at 10$ what are the chances that you would have held till now, truth is most people would have sold at $1000 or 2000 or 3000....hindsight regrets are so easy...

No other chain still does what hive is capable of IMO, that alone is a lot of reason to keep building and stacking up here

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You bring up a good point about not selling. That is also true.

However, even more importantly, if they only knew what was available then, would they have bought BTC for $10, dropping $1,000. If they are risk embracing speculators, maybe. The what the hell approach is often used.

The reality is, for most, even if they knew about Bitcoin, they would not have bought.

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IMHO LEO is still very cheap and it is not to late to get into it. If I learned one thing around here for some years, that projects that have fundamentals (an extraordinary Idea like for BTC and ETH and also STEEM/HIVE), a very dedicated Team (Cardano, LEO, STEM) or a lot of money behind them (BNB, TRON, AVA) this is a valid reason to invest and watch for the long term. And "long term" is referring to several years. Sadly, the time that is needed also to get an extraordinary idea to flourish is much longer than expected - including tragic setbacks - the hack of LEOs first LB on uniswap or the one of MtGox for BTC. I am still patiently waiting that the insolvency proceedings come to an end here... Maybe it helps if one is socialized in the scientific environment. Things there need also much more time than expected - but if projects are starting to fly, they can also moon ;-)

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You state a lot of good stuff. The fact that LEO could still be cheap compared to where things go over the next couple years. This agree with completely because I foresee much higher levels.

Hive is also about to burst in my opinion. There is a lot taking place which is going to open up the possibilities you describe.

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It is easy to see it after it happened but very difficult as it is occurring.

Live is lived onwards and better understood backwards.

How many you see saying *I wish I wouldn't have sold my BTC when it was under $10000. You're going to see people saying I wish I wouldn't have converted all my Hive in ... whatever they have converted it into.

You need courage to invest and risk by holding something you don't know the future of. Profit is a reward for risk taken. Skeptics waiting for some proof will always be late for everything. There's no such thing as sure or certain when it comes to cryptocurrency.

I decided to keep my Hive stake and not power down to invest in Leo. We'll see if I was right or not but it is my decision and don't regret it.

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I decided to keep my Hive stake and not power down to invest in Leo. We'll see if I was right or not but it is my decision and don't regret it.

There is an interesting point you bring up. It is very difficult to keep chasing the hot asset that is moving in the market. It might come to a point where Hive is moving faster than LEO and people will have the exact opposite viewpoint.

Constantly chasing the hot stock, crypto, or whatever can be extremely profitable if one is good at it but it is not easy to do. From what I see, few can do it well. I know for a fact, I am one who cannot.

Personally, I am adding to my holdings of both Leo and Hive. Hedge by having both. LOL

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Constantly chasing the hot stock, crypto, or whatever can be extremely profitable if one is good at it but it is not easy to do.

That's true, you need a lot of time and dedication, plus knowledge. I can't do it either.

I think we have a few tokens to concentrate on and more is coing in the near future.

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Yeah it is hard enough to keep track of a small handful.

I see some with portfolios of dozens of tokens. How do you keep track of all of them is my question?

But to each there own. I have some that I put a bit of money into as lottery tickets. Dont follow them just waiting for the explosion.

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Time will tell who is right. Years down the road, we will look back with our "hindsight" eyes and tell what the proper course of action was. Were the ones dumping genius or were they foolish? Will they be filled with regret?

I believe many has seen what happened with Leo and they wish they bought while it was low but what about now that it's high, time is still there to buy now but some still won't, believing that it might crash later.

I think this might be as a result of not wanting to learn more and only depend on what we know. Yes you know crypto is bullshit or a shit coin but you've never really read about it anywhere or make a research on your own

This is something that's not taught in school. We have neglected self education to make research and that I think has impact on our critical thinking and ability to see ahead of what's in front of us. You can't draw a pattern of what the next 5years looks like

If you try to see LeoFinance the way @khaleelkazi views it, then you'll believe what he's trying to achieve is as a result of what he knows and has learned about the crypto world. He keeps applying what he knows to make things better and more people are also willing to learn from him.

The truth is that majority only believe in what's right before their eyes and what happening right now without thinking ahead of time.

Time they say is money. Everything grows.

This is not a advice to buy I might be wrong but I'm only saying what I have learned about cryptocurrencies and blockchain. I might be wrong but I'm willing to apply everything I have learned and keep learning everyday.

What an insightful post. I learned alot.

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Cheers, @marvinix You Successfully Shared 0.100 WINE With @taskmaster4450.
You Earned 0.100 WINE As Curation Reward.
You Utilized 3/3 Successful Calls.


WINE Current Market Price : 0.000 HIVE

I believe many has seen what happened with Leo and they wish they bought while it was low but what about now that it's high, time is still there to buy now but some still won't, believing that it might crash later.

That is the key with investing. It is always hard to tell. For now, the price looks high, but is it? If the price goes back to 15 cents, then yes it is. However, if the price goes to $1.50, then it is cheap.

It all comes down to building. We are seeing a lot of updates and push forward which is why there is so much excitement. That is how things simply work.

We are seeing it with Bitcoin with larger players entering. What happens if there is that for LEO where people start bringing in tens of thousands of dollars.

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I bought two shares of Apple when it was $45 per share. I haven't purchased any more since then, but I own 112 shared due to splits. If only I had purchased more than that :) I see what you are saying here. It is hard to know which of the projects are actually going to amount to something and which ones are just going to suck your funds down to zero. I don't think Hive is one of those. I have invested in Hive beyond my time. I am probably going to invest a little bit more before the week is done. A lot of it will depend on what the price of BTC decides to do. I have always felt there is a lot of potential here. It is the perfect example of what many of the other blockchains are trying to become. Why it hasn't gained more traction... Who knows.

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It is amazing what can happen over time when something is extremely successful. Apple has done fabulous for people. That said, there was a time when many were not confident in it.

The same could be true for Hive. There is a lot taking place.

Why it hasn't gained more traction...

The lack of development to put it simply. Listening to the developer's call about the base layer, it is a matter of them prioritizing things that are needed due to a lack of developers. If there were 1,000 around here like on Ethereum, things would be much different.

Here we are seeing progress and a lot happening at layer 2, which is going to bring Hive the success. Hive, like Ethereum, is dependent upon what is build on it as opposed to a bitcoin situation which is being framed as something completely different.

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Once again, good points!

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Love the article and still very bullish on hive, I have been buying most of my hive in the past 6 months despite being here for years. The opportunity that came in 2020 with those low price was too good to miss and is still ongoing. I believe it is now or never to get to where you want to be in terms of hive and hive power. We probably won't have the same opportunity in 2025.

In my mind Leo is just a way to prove the concept that a decentralized crypto community is working with POS and can get be profitable. I believe this 2nd layer model has the potential to spread exponentially and I believe the price will eventually do the same, but once the market realize it it will be too late to maximize this opportunity, it will be hard to catch this train afterwards.

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That is how I see it too.

As @theycallmedan says, we need 100 LEO on Hive. If we have that, the sinks will eat up many of the liquid tokens out there.

People want to separate the technology from the token which, on one level, makes sense since they really have little to do with each other. However, long term, to believe the blockchain will be very successful without the token excelling just doesnt make sense.

Ethereum is the best example of how it works. That is a utility token that provides a use case.

When Hive reaches that point, it will have little choice but to run higher.

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It reminds me of when Defi blew up, YFI went from a few cents to 40k and ETH barely budged. People actually thought that this was bad for ETH somehow. You can’t have a successful blockchain without successful apps. What us Hivers have been seeing for years is coming to play. Leo is the largest most successful tokenized community on the planet. Splinterlands is the most successful blockchain game on the planet.

Resource credits are gold, and we are just getting started. What happens when we have a dozen more highly successful tokenized communities and games? Think big players won’t take notice? They are on the hunt and Hive is what they are all looking for

I agree completely.

It is easy to see the trend that is in place. We are seeing the transition away from what happened on Steem to an ecosystem that is multi-faceted with a lot of development at the second layer. That is what will draw the attention.

But one cannot get away from the base layer being the foundation. People believe in "hive the technology" but question the prospects of the token.

People think I am insane when I say Hive will hit a liquidity crisis. There will come a day when the 150 million or whatever Hive is available will see eaten up.

With the way the year is starting, it might not be too far into the future, within 6 months perhaps.

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it is easy to see success after it happened

It is even easier to see failure after it happens. My wife always sees it!

Detecting something that will be successful over the years is very difficult and I think that those who were involved did not always have infallible tools to help them make the decision. I can't say what they had, because there can be many aspects or none, simply luck, intuition or indifference. I don't know the technical ones, but I don't think all the most enlightened analysts have made the best decisions in life.

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It is even easier to see failure after it happens. My wife always sees it!

LOL If she is like the women I have dated, she can see it before it happens, at least as it pertains to you.

I dont know if it is a 6th sense or they just go with the odds we are going to screw up. 😁😁

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I do not know either!

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If there are strong fundamentals ,price discovery will be a matter of time. Better to buy cheap instead regret later.

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That is true. Of course, the best projects can fall off cliff so we much always be mindful of that.

But when something is before us and we believe in what we are seeing, it is best to get involved.

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Such a massive and important writing, @taskmaster4450!

I REALLY wish that many Brazilians (and all the deniers in other countries) read this post.

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It wouldn't do any good. They would simply point out all that is wrong with the post. And then give even more reasons why I am wrong with what I am writing.

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yup, i got lucky and got in early

i coulda/shoulda/woulda got more - but thems the breaks

i can still stack what i can get and throw a little bit at lbi-token here and there so it's all good ;)

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Very true. We can only work from today going forward.

Can't go back and change things in the past. Either get in now or move onto something else.

Fretting over what happened and the missed run will only cause one to miss other opportunities.

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Well, I dunno.
You make it look too easy.

There have been many projects I believed and invested in early on where I am now at a dead loss. I lost a couple thousand bucks investing in (project is actually far from dead and still looks quite successful but took a turn in which I do not profit from it anymore), SophiaTX (dead, probably was a hoax from the beginning), both seemed to do great with big partnerships like SAP and EY. Auxly Cannabis (a stock - no crypto) which was said to take off during the legalization run but then was watered down by the company going for fresh capital... I could go on for half a dozen other projects where I burnt money.

I am not drawing any parallels to LEO but I'm just saying that this is high risk investment and there is no guarantee for nothing. It hurts most people more to lose 1000k USD then it joys them to earn them.

No doubt about it. Buffett had rule #1: dont lose money.

It is not easy to pick winners and losers. A lot of effort foresight and research is required. I can assure you, I had my share of losers too. I dropped $11K into a small cable company that ended up as nothing. It basically went belly up.

The stock, ironically, still trades as a shell OTC which has it in my account. It is only worth a few bucks but I sit there and look at it.

Such is life.

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Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!
Week 38 of my contest just can now check the winners of the previous week!

LEO to the moon

A very important metric for new apps is USERS. I like to think of Hive network as an excellent incubator for new apps. By joining in the network you can tap into a a great pool of active and engaged users and focus your resources on solving other problems.

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Many people underestimate the great opportunities ... LEO is a beautiful example and today is the token of the moment. It is gratifying to see that more people like you and me believed in the potential that LEO today has and still has a lot to offer us.

HIVE will have its moment, we will still see people sorry for having missed the rocket launch. Those who enjoy it now will smile a lot in the future.

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The ones that make the most are normally the quietest lol they learned to drown out the naysayers and instead focus on what really matters the data and the drive which are building these platforms. Granted to say it's not to late to get involved but acting now today instead of waiting is what will hold most people up. Same thing in the marketing world. So many people read and learn or don't and never take any action then just complain about those who did do something.

 last year (edited) 

I finally got into LEO a month or so ago. Could no longer ignore the impressive level of development and community interaction going on there. Didn't buy much, as I only had 1000 HIVE, but it's up 70%. Can only see it continuing with all the activity there.

edit: and Hive... well I'm a bit bummed by it. SO much great development, but *crickets*. I'm seriously considering moving some of it over to LEO.

Actually crytocurrency is a closed book to me, but I will learn to know what it is and how it works. Agree with you that all big trees start from a small seed. The thing can make it true is the belief.