Damn it.
I have things to do, but went down a more interesting rabbit hole instead!
Thanks @acidyo!
Prick.
Warning: this is more of an exploratory post and unlike 99% of what I say in all the other posts, I "may" be wrong on some points.
Hive Inflation
Similar to Bitcoin, Hive is deflationary, meaning that there is less inflation coming out every year. This is reduced by a small fraction every 250,000 blocks (if I remember correctly) and sits around 6.5% at the moment. That means with 395M HIVE in the world, about 25.6M will be printed in the next year. And then the following year at 6% inflation and 420M HIVE in existence, 25.2M will be printed - and it keeps dropping. By about 2035, there will be around 650M HIVE in existence and the inflation rate will be 0.95% and about 6.5M HIVE will come out. At that point the inflation rate will be static, so every year a little more than 6.5M Hive will be generated, the following year, a little more again, because it is based on the total supply.
However, this isn't quite a straight line, because there are other dynamics in play, namely HBD. The total HIVE supply (as seen in Hiveblocks and coinmarketcap is calculated as if the HBD has been converted to HIVE. That is why it appears like this:
But, as you know, that conversion rate is going to be affected by various dynamics too, namely the price of HIVE. So, currently the ~30M HBD convert into ~75M HIVE, because the price of Hive (on the blockchain with a 3.5 day moving average based on the markets) is $0.40. However, if HIVE with all other things remaining equal, if HIVE was currently sitting at $4.00 (10x dreams!), that HBD would convert into 7.5M HIVE, a tenth of the amount, bringing the total to ~403M HIVE.
But, unlike Hive's predecessor Steem, there is another dynamic in play through the conversion HBD Stabilizer mechanism created by @smooth that trades overpriced HBD for HIVE, then buys it back underprice and converts and does some magic after fairy dust is sprinkled on it and unicorns… (someone can clarify)
You can see the latest continuation proposal here:
https://peakd.com/hbd/@smooth/hbd-stabilizer-continuation-september-2022
You can see it at work through the wallet here:
https://peakd.com/@hbdstabilizer/wallet
The HBD stabilizer is both taking HIVE out of circulation and funding the Hive DAO in a clever little process that stabilizes HBD at around the dollar mark algorithmically. It is not perfect and HBD is still prone to getting pumped, but when it does, the stabilizer uses the opportunity to reduce Hive inflation and secure more funding, as it works to bring the price back to near parity.
What the fuck does all this mean?
No idea.
Okay, I have somewhat of an idea, but there are some interesting things that a lot of people don't consider in regards to their earnings, which is all people tend to care about. So, how does it affect earnings?
Well obviously, this is a stake based platform where the inflation is distributed based on stake, at least for authors on chain (there is also the HDF funding and witnesses, as well as interest payments etc that are not stake based). This means that while it is 65% of the inflation, as that inflation amount drops every 250,000 blocks, the pool of HIVE decreases. So, for example, when there is 20M created in the year for voting rewards, it is split between author and curator, each group getting 10M. When there is 10M in the pool for rewards, those groups will get 5M each. This means that in order to maintain equivalent value, the price of Hive would have to double between those years and hopefully, it will increase far more than that.
But, if you haven't worked this out yet, as this mechanism runs its course and less HIVE is being created through the growing inflation pool, it gets harder to earn stake. This means that new authors will have more difficult times earning stake to earn through curation. However, it also makes what people are earning now more valuable, which is normal in a first mover advantage investment scenario, which this is.
But using the scenario above, selling 1000 HIVE stake earned when the inflation was 20M, will require twice as much staked voting to earn the same 1000 again when the inflation amount is 10M. This is why the people who understand these mechanisms believe that earning now and staking is more valuable than earning later, not only because of the requiring double, but also because there is less competition on the platform.
For example, everyone (except people on Blurt) want Hive to be successful, but if it was to build up popularity and the value of the token as well as posting values were to increase significantly, the competition for attention increases a lot. And, as the interest rate decreases and less HIVE is being created, there will be more people competing for a shrinking amount of HIVE in the pool. So, what are the chances of doubling the amount of stake voting on a particular author, especially if the value of HIVE is significantly more than today?
And then, there is another dynamic to consider.
That is all the vested HIVE on the platform, which means there is about 230M unvested (liquid) HIVE sitting out there.
Who cares!?
Only vested HIVE can vote and 100% of the HIVE it has access to will get distributed. So, to visualize this, let's say that the distribution available is 100 HIVE and there are 10 voters of equal size and all voting at maximum rate. This means that they will distribute 10 HIVE each. If there were 20 voters of equal size, they would distribute 5 HIVE each. The value of the HIVE doesn't matter, it can be 40 cents or 40 dollars.
Now, if all HIVE was powered up and started voting, the 100% would still be distributed, but no more HIVE is created. Instead, all voters will distribute their stake amount wherever they do. This means that currently, with over half the available Hive not staked and therefore not voting, the rate of return for those who are staking and voting is higher, as is the amount of Hive that authors are getting. This last point is because if there were far more voters, the probability is that they will spread their votes differently than what is happening now. This makes getting attention more difficult, but for those that manage it, they will likely do well.
Similarly to Bitcoin, the less that is printed, the more scarce HIVE becomes and the theory is that this will increase the value of the token. Combine this with demand on earning it as well as a return for staking and using it for governance in a world with a collapsing economy, banking system and a desire for online earnings in a gig-economy, and there might actually be a perfect enough storm to drive those prices.
While I am not going to speculate on what those prices might be, it is good to consider that with a few million users of demand to create and a few more million consuming, the value could easily push into the 25x range. That would put the value of HIVE at 10 dollars and the value of the blockchain (in terms of HIVE value) at around 4 billion. Couple this with the likes of Splinterlands value and demand as well as an increasing amount of applications and interfaces serving different purposes like Leo Finance and Wresting Organization online, and things might be very interesting indeed.
But, because this is all speculation and there are no guarantees about the future in any respect other than we are all going to die one day, most of us don't consider, let alone invest for potential conditions down the track, which means that when they arrive, we have missed the greatest part of the opportunity to take advantage. We are risk averse by nature, but we apply this to all aspects of our life, as if our lives depend on all aspects and any loss is our death.
TL:DR?
That is okay.
Most of my posts are too long and people don't read them, but those who do might actually get something out of them that helps them change a slice of their mindset that will hopefully benefit them, now or in the future. There are people thinking about these things here and other places, but it really is up to us to decide whether we are going to be active members of the global economy or passive victims of it. If we are unwilling to even spend a few minutes reading about things that might affect us heavily, but use that time to consume what has no positive impact on us at all, we deserve to be treated like cattle, milked for our value and slaughtered when not producing enough.
Anyway, as said, this was a bit of a rabbit hole and accuracy is not present, but the general ideas are, so use it as you do, research where you want and fill in the blanks in the comments, if you have questions or can bring in some clarity.
But if you only remember one point. In terms of earning Hive,
it will never again be easier than it is to earn, than it is to earn today.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
This point is important for those looking to take advantage of the small userbase we have right now and the potential of the ecosystem. This is also why I tell people to keep some stake, anything they may feel comfortable with, even if they really need the money it'd be unwise to sell everything.
There's tons of examples out there of people losing their bitcoin holdings they mined for fun in the early days, bought a couple pizzas with or used it to get some drugs off the dark web but never looked more into what it was. Similarly with ETH which was sitting at sub $1 for ages while I was telling friends it might be worth looking into.
Hive is more forgiving than that in a way, as long as you've remained a good actor there'll be people around here to support you, but that support shouldn't be counted on forever or taken for granted. Who knows what people will come up with for usecases of Hive, as long as the community finds it accepting it doesn't always have to be straight-up content or comments that gets rewarded and who knows what kind of lucrative delegation programs people will come up with that'll have many delegate most of their HP (not to mention the need for RC) away for some favorable returns leaving your friends with no voting power to vote you up with. Point being, the stake you're earning now won't be as easily earned in the future. If you only care about $ then you might get lucky and the price might moon 10x+ and it only requires 10% (minus deflation and powered up hive metrics) of the voting mana you're getting now to get you the same rewards in HBD later but this is always going to leave you at risk of never having your own stake and becoming financially independent.
It'll probably be a very bad move to never hold any stake, even if you hate hive and think it's never going to go anywhere I can tell you even such people hold some stake just in case that I know of. It's kind of the same risk management people should be considering with their fiat savings right now seeing what's occurring with banks, etc. I'd hate to be the person to come back here 10 years from now seeing there being 1000x more users competing for the limited reward pool and all your friends being gone while there's nothing left for you aside from proof you were one of the first million users that some may give you an upvote on your returning post for but then quickly forgetting you so they can upvote the newest tiktok video of their favorite influencer.
Now of course I'm quite a Hive maxi and think it'll live forever and keep evolving and scaling, but looking at it from a rational perspective I don't think it's crazy to assume that there's a ton of upside to it compared to downside as it can't get much worse pricewise, we've been there. On top of it all there's always going to be a few new weirdos who join or are invited by other weirdos who may not even care about selling it off but keep it on their accounts and grow alongside inflation to increase their influence on the rewardpool for the fun of it. As long as we can reward our blockproducers and there's at least 20 of them either for profit, speculation or altruisticly continue running those servers, hive will be here.
It is pretty easy to have the 50/50 rule here - earn, but never power down. For most in the world, powerup more :) I know I could have done better in many cases here - but I have also been consistently moving upward, especially during the bears.
Yes. I know one who ended up having to cover a tax bill, but in the last few years has built back well. Life happens, but life happens for some a lot more than perhaps it should. So, the question is, is it life, or their own behaviors?
The blockchain doesn't forget. An immutable reminder of an opportunity missed.
And this is the risk management. People seem destined to keep buying crap where there is certainty to zero and taking large risks on what has little gain. Why not roll the dice on a bit of Hive? :)
I some times see some in consistent power down while posting and earning about some badass new TV or phone they bought with Hive while they have close to no stake left. Guess there's all kinds of people out there and borderless and transparent social media just really brings it to light, lol.
Or they gamble the lot away! :D
Many live on hive, and sell what is coming, at one point I thought like that but to date I have not sold a single one, I have only reinvested them and sold high to see how the value turned to dust, I was afraid of becoming an orca and betting everything in a hive, but like everyone, it's never too late to go back and think about growing here, this has given us the opportunity to have digital savings for emergencies. but that we know that they will arrive when we least expect it, meanwhile we continue to build here, having fun and creating a library and plant base, an information repository rich in knowledge that has already been used by some students, and even newspapers to cite it and by the way we get something much better than what others get we are that group of crazy writers who found this treasure and we are not willing to abandon it because we know its value, and as they say if you allow us e achieve financial freedom we are here for it, watching the financial system shake.
Greetings and I hope you read this, even if it is misspelled, remember, I am in the land of Bitcoin, the first country to legalize it. I hope you come one day and let's have a coffee.
It is never too late to build a base here, but it is constantly going to get harder, the more popular it becomes. In terms of staking everything, it is probably worth having a little bit aside to trade on the internal market from time to time when there are pumps and dumps :)
Thanks for get Time for me sir.
Yes we Will try to involved un pump AND dump AND get some extra asset.
The potential upside is so big that it is worth it to keep some stake. Just in case.
The worst that can happen is that we all learned about being a decentralized community with tons of awesome projects
Absolutely!
Perhaps you should have written a post as a reply @acidyo 👀
Laughs I'm just messing around!
Argh now I'm gonna miss those juicy autovotes today by not posting anything, I'm such a shitty maximizer!
Yeah, can you imagine missing out on that! Laughs oh wait 😂
This blockchain is amazing though, remember a few months back I set my goal to reach 3k to 3.5k hive.. Basically to get what I had... Well I've since then reached 3k 😂 im stunned at how fast😂
I can actually give a few cents away now and not fractions anymore😎
Because my reading, engagement and curation time is finite and scheduled, I rarely read every word in a post. I read every word in this Tl:dr block of text and it felt like getting to sit down with you for a !beer and have things explained on a napkin in a way I could easily understand.
If things stay the same we are headed right where you describe. Things won’t stay the same. The surprises that we meet along the way will probably result in the ebs and flows we constantly see in life and amplified in crypto patterns. They will end up balancing each other out and creating opportunities for those watching for the break in the linear pattern which makes it rewarding to care and be prepared.
Love the analogies and examples. Some of the apparent thankless slogging we did if we were keeping the lights on at $.10 prices will not seem like it when 2035 comes along.
Message to me is “keep going. You are doing it!” I love to pass that message on and cherish the power of using the stake I built entirely through creating content, engaging, and through support like yours.
Best rat hole I have discovered yet today.
(Thanks @acidyo!)
Hopefully, we can actually do this one day. One of the best experiences I have had, has been meeting up with people at a SteemFest - before it went rogue of course.
The future isn't a smooth road, but the goal is to keep travelling and survive the journeying. I remember writing about this a little in 2017 and people thought I was crazy because I was talking about the inflation when my daughter turns 18, which was 17 years away. It is only 11 years now - getting closer :) 2035 is going to be an interesting time in life!
Absolutely. And it compounds faster than people realize. And as the inflation falls, these days might be the most financially valuable in our lives.
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For a second I felt like you went full taskmaster style Hive maxi there. I do like reading your long posts. They kind of make me think and I can cross check some of my observation and the assumptions too. So it feels good that way. What's your opinion on the 3speak and potential of it impacting on Hive?
TM has his style, mine is quite different. I am not quite a Hive maximalist, but I am very, very invested here :)
3speak has a lot of opportunity. I think they will build in time and it will be increasingly user friendly and perhaps, a couple significant people will move on to give it a go. Also, it has the benefit of more direct interaction between creator and consumer, so unlike Twitch, people can't be cancelled because they aren't advertising compatible. This alone should make it useful for many streamers - they should really be moving over in waves.
Let's say as years pass by, we will earn less HIVE, but the price of HIVE will be higher, considering the large growth of HIVE as a dec-social media.
As long as the value keeps steadily increasing, all will be well. It doesn't have to be a fast increase...
I confess that for me your analysis is very technical even if I understood the concepts and, consequently, it was a very useful analysis for me.
I don't know how the others want to behave but my goal is to accumulate as much as possible, both Hive and HBD plus some interesting secondary Tokens like Leo.
I will do it by publishing, accumulating and investing; when I speak of investing, where possible, I am also referring to my money as well as time... In my opinion it is a great investment.
Just as I consider it a great investment to read your posts to the end and those of other Hivers who offer so much value with their content.
I agree with you, anyone who doesn't even take the time to read something that could be very useful to them deserves only to be milked and squeezed to the last drop.
We can be architects of our own destiny… at least in part.
I wish I could visualize it better. I will create some images next time to see if that helps :)
And this is the thing that many forget. They believe that all their wealth should come from thin air. What people in crypto need to realize is, they should start moving their wealth from the traditional economy into crypto too - at least as a hedge.
Hopefully, in larger parts the more we practice :)
You lost me after the first paragraph. Way too technical for my mind that hasn't fully woke up yet this morning!
Yep. If you have any questions or need clarification, just ask and I will simplify pieces for you. It can be overwhelming at times! :)
Gosh, reading articles like these really reminds me how little I actually know about the Hive ecosystem and earning. I certainly am not maximizing the value of my Hive, or my HBD, or even my Hive Power, which I use for Resource Credits playing Splinterlands but I know is likely being squandered on a daily basis.
At least I have been trying to stay more consistent with my Splinterlands writing, I think I'll hit a personal best of 4 articles this week. I might even try a few non-splinterlands pieces, after all I did just see an amazing local performance of my favorite Shakespeare play Othello that I can't stop thinking about.
Consistency is a key in everything, right? Look at how much time and effort you have put into SL over the years and how far you have gotten. Doing similar on Hive, it is possible to get similar results, though perhaps, the work involved is different!
So true, but a math guy like myself likes to optimize situations and I think I'm quite a ways off with what I'm doing with my Hive stack. Need some kind of follow train for my alt accounts and I guess still interact more. Commenting is my safe space =)
Oh and for sure, try something new too!
Drop me a message in Discord to make sure I see it :)
This post is very informative for me. Never fully understand the mechanisms of Hive all this while, and there's always something new to learn each day. 👍
There are so many things going on below the surface that are interconnected and dynamic, it is hard to grasp it all.
Each year the size of the hive will increase. Moreover HBD is converted back to Hive. Anyway you make a nice point about it and about inflation.
It is worth diving in and looking into the mechanics.
Your post was really interesting, what happens next is very important. Inflation exists and we are mired in it in all financial matters! Your information was very helpful to me.😍
Inflation is terrible in the traditional economy when it runs rampant. Known inflation however can be factored into activities :)
I read your posts, most of them. I even read this one, which was mostly Greek to me.
I read this type of thing quite often from others - this is not your first I don't think. I hardly ever understand them, but each time I manage to understand a tiny bit more. Hive at $10 would be swell!
What does this mean?:
I find it pretty hard to earn on Hive, but that doesn't stop me trying. I guess I can't expect freewrites and garden posts to make bundles, although some of those authors do quite well.
TL:DR Too Long, Didn't Read!
Consistency is key and of course, engagement. Some writing is easier to engage with than others and while some poets do okay, generally it takes more than that. Some have completely flipped their approach to content.
When I first found out about the shrinking pool, I had basically this same thought process - which is why I've never powered down and don't intend to any time soon. I'm not as regular at posting as I'd like but I make the effort.
Right now we're still small, as you said, and that lends us to seeing the same folks hustling day in and day out, which I think is central to the community we've built... and as things continue to grow and more and more folks come on, it's going to be harder and harder for new users to gain that name recognition - which is relevant as the more folks see and hear from you, the more folks will follow what you're writing and that feeds back into more interaction and of course, more rewards.
It'll never be easier than it is today to build yourself up.
If there are no consistent authors to engage with regularly, the community falls apart. It creates problems too, but for the most par, those who are consistently getting engagement are not bad.
It definitely helps to be an early adopter, but even now people have a good chance to earn as the active community is still pretty small. When there are millions posting (if ever) it will be hard to get noticed by big accounts.
You have to feel a bit for the Blurters with their struggling platform. I know some of them felt unfairly treated on Hive, but in many cases they brought it on themselves. I think there is a case for giving some of the 'exiles' another chance. Holding grudges is bad for both sides. They can't expect too much support, but if they can make a contribution then we all stand to gain. If they try to game the system again they will still reap the consequences. I know some people will never forgive and so we write off some potential Hivers who will continue to spread bad vibes. Just my thoughts.
For sure. And, there is far more need for people to explore different media options now than there was earlier. The centralized space is getting increasingly unhealthy and harmful.
You know, last night I was going to write a post about grudges and how I don't hold them in the same way as earlier. With some, there is no going back due to their behavior, but holding the grudge takes energy I don't have. In regards to Blurt people specifically, few of them were assets to the Hive community :D
I didn't know that the hive would be decreasing over time, wow that's good news, yes sometimes I see posts that receive a lot of hive and others that reveal less and I say what happened, and as you say I suppose it's because one day there are fewer posts and the daily pot is distributed among less, and if the way to grow is today, even if it is little by little, by the way, thanks for answering and voting on everyone's comments, that is glorious and gives a lot of participation and growth to those of us who come here, you will notice that I have appeared a little more often, well I am in absolute growth mode and one day I hope to change my life with this, and help to change that of others by also distributing a good participation.
well people are voting tiktok and other things but we are taking advantage of the little time we have while others are enjoying tv, football, netflix and all those things, don't you think you're crazy to be on these boring platforms like these haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa while people are having fun watching very nice videos while here there are only strange technical things that are not funny at all, you are crazy and you know that I am also in your same camp so we are crazy as hell, well my friend let's enjoy this While the others come, they will come and we will be here as hive maximalists.
Greetings.
It is good to be in growth mode, as long as it doesn't get spammy or abusive. What I find is that those with a growth mindset and the will to add value, tend to do well here - because they grow in a way that trades value for value, rather than trying to make it as easy as possible.
Yes! I don't understand why anyone is on any other platform :D
That is so informative and interesting thanks for sharing, we know nothing is grented but after Reading your post and understanding what will happened in the future with Hive coin supply I am sure hive coin price will keep increasing in the future
It will go in waves with the market too, but hopefully after each run, it will have a higher floor value and, encourage more people to join for the fun :)
An interesting read, going down the rabbit hole is always good to learn more, think about how the system works. Those using the upper layer seldom go down below to see the inner thinking of how this generates itself if well managed!
Thanks to the Witnesses, Communities and all Front End Developers moving a way forward in a space to enjoy!
@tipu curate 2
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 13/53) Liquid rewards.
I used to dive deeper more often, but it has been harder in the last few years to get deep enough. I have to push myself though, as it really is interesting!
Always interesting, normally start then end up going from one good piece of content to the next on the day. This is what happened yesterday... 😃
This article is must for me. Lol I don't know anything about hive🙈🙈. Thanks for sharing galenkp🔥🔥
Did my bro share, or are we getting confused? :D
But you are welcome :)
Super informative post!
@tipu curate
Cheers mate. Hope you are gearing up for a great weekend!
It will be interesting when all HIVE gets staked, if we ever get to that point...
it will indeed. return goes down, distribution goes up - scarcity on the market increases and it takes far less investment to drive the value.
The fact that with a higher hive price relatively more hbd and less hive is printed brings a very interesting dynamic.
Good times ahead I hope 😋
Yeah. Factor in the conversions, interest earnings and all the other things that HBD can be spent on and, it gets very interesting indeed!
Interesting. Less and less selling pressure in the future from authors (that need to convert to pay bills).
Will this decrease the amount of content if HIVE price don’t go up enough to compensate for decreased rewards?
I started skim reading this then I got to the part where you said
So I thought I'd better spend some time to read this properly. I get to the top, then you say
Great!! Do I read it or not??!!
Ok, so I get the gist I think. There is less Hive printed every year so it becomes scarcer. And thus the more Hive you hold and stake the earlier, the easier it is to earn more.
By the way, I think you're getting way too buddy with Acid, your writing is a bit like his, except I don't run out of breath after reading your post because you have more paragraphs and commas🙃😉😄 JJ
That is the gist of it, yes. Like anything in terms of investments, there is risk being in early, but the reward is higher if it pans out.
:D :D
Will he ever learn?
Bullies. People have told me its the german in me that causes me to write those super lengthy sentences. It just doesn't make sense to me to add a period in some of my sentences. xD
It makes a lot of sense. I have been posting almost every day now for over one year. It takes me at least one hour per day and then another hour for reading and replying. Then my #ttt results post on Wednesday can take anywhere from 3 to 6 hours over the week, but I do believe I'll look back some day and be very very thankful for the time investment, as Hive most certainly has the potential to reach $10 and above. Patience is the name of the game and even of it all crashes to zero I have learned plenty here and made good friends, so it's still worthwhile.
@lukasbachofner check this post! It is the best time to earn Hive now haha :) all the best! !BEER 🍻
uiii...now that was a bit too technical as morning reading for my level. But I think I understood so much that the best way to earn hive is to post,vote and staken hive and tokens staken staken. and sometimes read and learn a bit about the blockchain operations and processes.step-by-step.
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Perfect conclusion :)
Guete morge no :) greez :) !BEER 🍻
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It was very interesting! We will really regret it in the future. When we don't take risks and become a part of a trend that has just started, we will regret in the future why we didn't do it! We didn't buy when Bitcoin was $3000 and we didn't sell when it was $60000 and we regret all these moments! There is definitely a mechanism for inflation in any platform, and Hive is the same. It is important to be a part of it! Maybe the income will decrease in the future, but the tokens are there and the hive itself will definitely grow!
Reducing inflation is good. I'm not sure if the price of HIVE will rise in the coming years. But the chances of my stack growing in Hive are good. This is the main thing.
Under no circumstances does any set of human beings "deserve to be treated like cattle, milked for our value and slaughtered when not producing enough." As an African American I firmly rebuke that ... anyone who values humanity SHOULD. But I will take the other half of your statement, having read your article to the end, for the value that it has: If we are unwilling to even spend a few minutes reading about things that might affect us heavily, but use that time to consume what has no positive impact on us at all ... " then we are likely to be victims of people who see us as mere chattel. Your article was very informative, overall.
Yeah it can be 40cents or 40 dollars... But when you get 5 hive with it being 40 dollars you are going to pocket big time.
If Hive really goes mainstream and I mean like twitter mainstream then we will all be smiling because 40 usd for a hive would probably be a decent prize
I like it when you pop down your rabbit holes as we all learn some extra things for those that read posts. Yes stake is that important as you earn a chunk of the pool the more you have automatically through APR and curation. The more that is staked the less there is too earn organically plus the deflation taking place.
Yay! 🤗
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Delegate HP and earn more
A long post well worth a read. I appreciate the honesty and willingness to dive into the topic which I've been less than clear about. I'd the pea soup fog of understanding is beginning to lift.
There is a risk in being early, but, honestly, the only thing I have invested at this point in time. The cost is nothing and the risk is removed, I believe. I have staked almost all that I have, delegate a little, and pushed a tiny bit in savings, but, I really believe that once you stake it, it is easier and easier to grow. If you need the money and you are drawing down every time you earn a Hive, how can it grow? 50/50 is what I tell people. When you are first earning, the couple of Hive won't make or break you, because you don't earn a lot when you first start. If you take your money out as fast as you make it, your credibility as part of the Hive team goes out the window. It is your stake to use, so technically, it isn't wrong, BUT people won't want to support someone who is only self-serving. Save some, spend some and you too will grow.
I did read it all. I can't help it, but, I have to read it all or I cannot comment on it. Probably why I am so slow getting around. You make a lot of good points... I am still wrapping my head around a few million people and how long it would take me to get around.
I agree, now all we have to do is stimulate movement in a few people. Okay, many people. :D
I think I have seen a few things about how Hive might be deflationary in terms of supply too because there are ways to burn Hive (like creating accounts). I think even with that fact, more people are staking Hive and I do expect more of the supply to be powered up over time. As more applications are built here on Hive, I expect things to expand and the demand for Hive should also go up.
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BEER.Hive is not deflationary, it is disinflationary.
Even when it reaches it's terminal inflation rate, it is still inflating, just at a (much) reduced rate. The rate of change of inflation is going down but the amount of Hive will continue to increase in perpetuity.
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This is what causes some people to buy high and sell low I think... they see it going down even temporarily, and bail. Then before the year is up, it ten times.
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Lol I almost forgot abt Blurt. I should post there again soon...