More than 2/3 of analysts are predicting a recession in 2023. Stocks are having a hard time, S&P 500 is down 15% from 2021 highs. The Ukraine war is still far from a resolution.
2023 will be an overall tough year for everyone.
There are some good news in all this.
Even though experts think a recession is very likely, the predictions are that it will be both mild and short. Resolved inside 6 months to a year.
It will take another year for EU to fully adjust to the current energy market realities brought on by the Russian aggression. When I mentioned Natural gas prices last time they were around 50 EUR/MWh. In a month the price fell even further to 41 EUR/MWh. Last time we saw these prices was 3 years ago. But EU cant just put hopes in fortunate gas prices.
We should also expect the invasion of Ukraine to be resolved inside the next 12 months. According to some independent military analysts, at this loss rate, Russia has only around 2 year of fighting capability left if they fight to a point where they are happy to diminish their defensive ability significantly.
Ukraine can sustain this far longer. As long as basically they continue receiving support from the west and specifically the United States. The USA is giving away a few percent of their yearly military budget which is enough for Ukraine to offer significant resistance. And its almost all surplus equipment from storage.
More recently tanks have started to be sent to Ukraine, something that was very much seen as unlikely only a few months ago.
We should be seeing a similar counteroffensive in the coming months from Ukraine where they return a significant chunk of territory like in previous counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson.
The more military aid Ukraine receives the quicker we will see the war resolved.
Global market recovery, resolution of the war (or very low intensity fighting like from 2014 till 2022), Stocks recovery, end of the recession.
Add to all this the Bitcoin halving thats supposed to happen in April 2024 you have a grounds set for a historical bull market.
Estimates?
Well, you know the twitter BTC analysts. The ATH estimates differ wildly. From 100k-500k this time around. At those prices the total crypto market cap should reach up to 10% of the global stock market capitalization.
How likely do we feel this kind of MC value relation is?
I expect 100k for BTC being a significant resistance level. If bulls break through its hard to guess how high we go.
Like yesterday the market has come down now the same thing is showing again that the Monday market is going and it will go like this for three or four months and it will be a good year for 2024 market. Once the bull market starts, it will be very difficult to say how far it will go.
I think $BTC and the whole crypto market will top out again right on schedule in 2025.
I have to marvel at the genius of the creator(s) of Bitcoin for deciding on the four-year halving cycle. It has probably been designed to coincide with important economic and political cycles to a great success.
I dont see how it could happen any other way.
I'd say that BTC is going to peak at something around $100k. $500k is so way out of the equation for now. The exponential rallies have tamed a bit in the past two cycles.
Dont you think 100k is a bit low considering the current ATH?
No. Peaks are trimmed over time...
Im a little bit more bullish but 500k is probably out of the ballpark quite a bit.
We just have to stay the course all through 2023. 2024 will be much better from an economic perspective. I think bitcoin at 100K is conservative and a likely possibility on the next bull run.
I think 100k is conservative as well.
I really dont pay attention to mainstream media analyst of any type because they all talk in favor of their agenda, I do expect BTC get to ATH levels by the end of 2024 to eventually peak at $100k - $135k, in reality for me its fine if it goes higher because at that point I really would not care much, take some profits and see you on next bull market
I have my targets written down in a word document. ATH or not I know when Im selling and how much.
I hope HIVE will reach at least $10 threshold then.
Bring $10 Hive on!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
10 USD shouldnt be a problem imo.
As pawns, we just have to watch and hope the tough times pass sooner. BTC 100K, am bad with prediction but looking for to BTC to hit that figure, it will be wild.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
There will be fireworks on CT
2023 is expected to be a hard year for all the financial markets, but i'm hoping 2024 will be a good year. we can only hope for it.
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A very smart man once told me it could eventually reach a million... I can wait though, I need to load up those sats first!
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