Is Hive worth $1 Billion Dollars? Does it deserve to have a market cap that high? What about Hive signals that it is undervalued and that a future valuation could be this high from a fundamental perspective?
Today, HIVE is $0.42. The current market cap is $156 million.
At the peak of the bull market, we were at $3.41 ~$1.25 Billion market cap.
Is Hive Worth $1 Billion Dollars?
Remove all the noise of crypto bull and bear cycles. From a fundamental, technological and adoption point of view, is Hive worth $1,000,000,000?
This all started with a Discord conversation in the LeoFinance Discord Server. We always talk about crypto and all sorts of topics surrounding investing, etc. We often (pretty much daily) are having discussions about HIVE and the Hive ecosystem. We all have various viewpoints and bets on the ecosystem.
There's a wide-range of people in the LeoFinance Discord. From arbitrage bot operators, to top #10 paid authors on Hive to dApp owners, etc. It creates this really cool melting pot of ideas and Alpha to generate returns by trading around the intimiate knowledge that we all bring to the table.
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Today, we added the Alpha bot which allows you to pull up all sorts of charts and information about crypto and stocks (and yes, Hive is on there!). We did this to replace Banjo at the request of Tonimontana since Banjo is basically completely out of service now.
Toni pulled up the stats on Hive and Edicted, Trumpikas and a few of us started talking about the Hive market cap.
A 10x in the price of Hive takes us to a $1.5B market cap. This is actually right around where the peak bull market was for HIVE at $3.41 and a ~1.25B market cap.
So this all begs the question.... is Hive really worth $1B+?
Comps
Comparisons are always a good way to evaluate things. Let's consider what a $1b market cap stock looks like:
This list of publicly traded companies worth roughly $1B doesn't give a whole lot of insight - namely because I've never heard of them.
One that stands out is Portillo's. As someone who is originally from Chicago (where Portillo's was started), this hits home for me. I actually grew up just minutes from where the Portillo Family lived (up until they recently sold their house and moved elsewhere).
The company recently went public. It's valued at $1b. According to the ever-trusty Wiki entry, they have 75 locations and pulled in $517M in revenue last year.
From first-hand experience - I love Portillo's and so does everyone from my hometown. If you ever visit home, a stop at Portillo's is a virtual guarantee. Nothing beats that Italian beef + cheese fry combo.
Is Hive's value comparable to a restaurant chain with 75 locations, an avid base of regular customers and $500m in revenue per year?
In the Crypto Industry
Diving into a comp that is far more relatable - this is a list of cryptos with a ~$1B market cap. We see some familiar names:
- Aave
- LUNA Classic
- EOS
- Axie Infinity
- Tezos
- Huobi
This list makes me feel a lot more like Hive is undervalued.
What exactly is going on at EOS - one of the favorite comps to Hive - that gives it a ~9-10x valuation above Hive?
We all know that there is a tightly controlled supply, a centralized corporation at the middle of it and an infamous founder who left Steem back in the day to create his 2,300th crypto token.
The valuation of EOS makes me feel a lot better about the potential valuation of Hive. We have a lot more going for us than something like EOS.
Aave is a worthy valuation in my opinion. They do billions of dollars in DeFi TXs, loans, etc. A great business model.
LUNA Classic? I think that one speaks for itself. It may have some legs as there were actually great tech projects being built on LUNA that may be able to revive themselves.
Axie is a bit small IMO to have this kinda market cap. Splinterlands has a lot more activity and they're a much smaller market cap, right? ($27M as I write this post).
Granted, that's getting out of my wheelhouse. I know next to nothing about Axie.
Conclusion: HIVE is Undervalued?
Is my conclusion that HIVE is undervalued? Layered against something like Portillo's and looking at Hive from a business perspective, I'm not sure that is the case. Hive has virtually no revenue.
Then again, Hive is not a business. It's a technology stack. Does the internet have revenue on its own or is its value derived from the use cases it facilitates?
In my opinion, this is where comparing Hive to other cryptos comes into play. When you look here, I would say that HIVE is horrendously undervalued. Possibly one of the best long-term technological bets you can make in the crypto space.
Hive is not perfect but Hive is far more valuable than the cryptos in this $1B category. When I look to what it offers vs. things like EOS, LUNC, Axie, etc. it makes me feel like I don't have enough Hive.
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Fucking love Portillo's ... a cornerstone of every Chicagoland visit
well we have the great information to be, and stay in hive connect every day, every moment to come here and try to building something,
well and if you do not build nothing great, well, make a post this is our support to the network.
here we go to the moon.
Best regard.
To the moon, in the long run!
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I agree, Hive is totally undervalued and now I am craving Portillo's. My wife and I walked there from our hotel last time we were in Chicago. It was so nuts and confusing. I about had a mental breakdown trying to order and I wasn't sure which line to go to. My wife loved her chop salad and the Italian beef was amazing!
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Hahaha love to hear it! Yeah the chopped salad and Italian beef is a fan favorite
It’s definitely hectic, luckily I grew up going my whole life
Next time get the big beef, gravy on the side with hot peppers + cheese fries on the side! That’s my order 💪🏽
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I will definitely do that! It sounds delicious! I didn't realize at the time that they have three or four different counters depending on what you want. We had to be really quick to actually get a table for just the two of us.
Well, the answer was pretty much answered. Hive provides better technological services than other comp that are way above $1 Billion market cap. These days we have shit and memecoins having that market cap, it all balls down to people and the demand. Hive is worth at least $5 Billion if the amount of people utilizing far less worth coins utilize Hive.
What is dogecoin’s utility of usecase? Look at the market cap, imagine that community migrates to Hive. We won’t be talking $1 Billion, we will be talking far more.
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ha ha that's the reason you are pumping #hive price up buying. Imaging how many islands you may have when Hive is $42 and #Rune is $100.
The only differences between HIVE and those other 1B MC tokens are exchanges listings ... both CEXs and DEXs ....
This in terms of market cap :) .... the other diffrences aside
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Great analysis. In comparison with something offline business like Portilos it's hard to say because they're both in way different fields. But in comparison to those crypto projects like Eos hive just shines through. This whole post brings us back to the talk of marketing hive properly. If more people knew about hive this current valuation would surely not be the case.
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I totally agree that Hive is under-valued. But I'm going to be a bit contrarian and say that I like it like that.
What I want to see is consistent, steady, sustainable growth. If HIVE is listed on exchanges, we'll get an influx of cash from speculators buying in hoping to make a quick buck then pull back out. The price will end up all over the place, which could make it harder for HBD to hold it's peg.
At present, most of the cash flowing in is from Hive enthusiasts, who are buying into the blockchain because we believe in it. We are buying HIVE (and related 2nd layer tokens) primarily for the utility they give us now, with future potential value as an investment very much a secondary thing. Rather than a flood of speculative investors, I'd rather see Hive develop additional ways to bring in new users and (just as important) retain them, and additional projects that attract fiat in exchange for some kind of service.
I strongly believe that Hive is worth more than $1 billion and will be among the top 20 cryptocurrencies in the future.
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Just commenting on your original Twitter thread about valuation and comparing to Portillo's. I don't think that's a fair comparison to make as far as type of company goes simply because they are nothing alike. I think a better comparison would be a social media company, which you could scale down to hive based on the number of users. Since most lie about their active user counts, I think total account number would be better. I did an analysis like this way back when we were all still on Steemit. Suffice it to say that when I compared to social media companies, I found that Hive (Steem if it had been able to keep the user base) was worth many multiples of the $1.5B number.
Interesting Talk in discord.... Crypto still need a long way to mature and realize where potential and utility lies.
Hive base foundation is already much stronger than some $1b+ Marketcap coins with no real value or use-case.
Decentralized, scalibity to solution of already existing problems makes it values more than it's current.
Well, marketing is why most project got hyped and pumped up... that's where I think Hive should focus bit more and yeah as of now it made me feel like I don't have enough hive.
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Khal, these Korean guys must be reading you. :)
This HIVE pump is bigger than usual, lol.
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Whenever this (kind of ) discussion comes up, I'm always inclined to say that either Hive is grossly undervalued, or there's a whole lot of stuff that's grossly OVERvalued.
But that's the fickle thing about almost any financial market. Somehow, speculation (and projects that amount to little more than vaporware) tend to be a lot "sexier" to liquid capital than functional projects. And Hive has increasingly become a utility coin; a utility project.
In the legacy stock market, people chase biotech and AI projects like they are fresh baked hot bread... EVEN THOUGH if you had invested $1000 in a "totally boring" manufacturing company like Applied Materials — let's say, in 1983 — you'd have something on the order of $475K today (adjusted for splits). But there's nothing "exciting" about buying it, holding it, and grinding it out. So people know about the high flyers, but not the consistent steady performers.
So is Hive undervalued? Certainly... compared to the market. In an absolute sense? I don't think we fully know how to value blockchain properties... yet.
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