Insufferable maximalists have been declaring victory over the 'shitcoins' ever since FTX went belly-up. I find this comical considering the fact that 'shitcoins' had nothing to do with it. If BTC was the only asset listed on FTX, would this not of happened? Of course it would have. They'd of just sold all the Bitcoin just like before and placed overleveraged bets elsewhere. The logic being employed here is absurd.
So many bottom signals.
Every day another big player rage quits, calls it all a scam and it's going to zero. Those who are left find themselves bored because most of the time the price is just crab-walking sideways. CBDC FUD is on the rise even though there are only tiny shreds of evidence laying around.
Big Banks, NY Fed Start to Test Digital Tokens for 'Wholesale' Transactions
Yesterday like half a dozen outlets reported on this nothing news. Every outlet has zero information. Every outlet published a report that was like a single paragraph long: a digital token test is taking place over the next 12 weeks. The end!
SEE I TOLD YOU CBDC WAS COMING!!!!!1
Like... what? Such an ungodly amount of confirmation bias.
Here's a much more reasonable take:
The working ASS-umption that big banks in this country will just roll over and play dead is astounding...it's as if an entire generation up and skipped out on Banking 101...
This idea that CBDC is just going to pop up out of nowhere and take over everything instantly given zero resistance is based on a complete fantasy. Where does that fantasy come from? I can only assume it comes from the delusions of persecution and grandeur we see within the space. Everything constantly being framed within this narrative of good vs evil. Unsurprisingly, the people who propagate this FUD are the "good guys". Yeah, that's not how life works. Get over yourself. This isn't an Avengers movie.
And it's very weird because we've already been over this. Enterprise Blockchain was a complete and utter fail. These same alarmists were saying that corporate entities were going to take over. Yeah, they were wrong, and now instead of admitting they were wrong they just move onto the CBDC FUD, which is just as stupid (if not more-so) than Enterprise Blockchain.
DEFI is full of holes.
Getting to the main topic at hand: think of a crypto project as a hot-air-balloon. Heat (capital) comes in at the bottom. That heat (capital) is captured by the balloon. The balloon flies into the sunset and everyone is happy.
What goes up, must come down.
So what happens when we run out of fuel (money) to heat up the air inside the balloon? Number goes down. People are very sad. It's the end of the world. Rage quit everything.
The problem with crypto is that people do not understand the importance of staying grounded. If you've constantly got your head up in the clouds it's only a matter of time before reality comes to slap you down.
DEFI Adaptation
With defi we created a balloon that burned fuel faster. The balloons went even higher than before, and everyone cheered. The problem with this is that if we burn fuel faster, it becomes less efficient. The DEFI pump and dumps were real.
In addition to this, the DEFI balloons straight up had holes in them that were leaking the entire time. No one noticed this when things began because everyone was watching how high it went. Only when most crashed to zero did we realize these things were riddled with systemic failure built right into the system.
The most obvious examples of this were the yield allocations.
In the beginning, DEFI apps allocated yield to idiotic pairings like BTC/ETH. What was the purpose of this allocation? To bait BTC and ETH holders into the system. Users with BTC and ETH could pair their coins together, essentially risk free, to farm the underlying defi token.
With this mechanic in place it was like attracting a moth to a flame. The 'worthless' inflation allocations became honeypots that essentially provided free marketing to the outside crypto world. This was a one trick pony. It only worked one time; the time in which most people didn't know about DEFI or didn't want to get involved in it.
And what did we see out of subsequent versions of DEFI? They ALL copied the idiotic model of creating their hot-air-balloon with holes built in thinking that was a good idea. It was not a good idea. It was a complete waste of money, or even worse, a way for the developers themselves to farm their own token risk free and dump it on unsuspecting victims.
This process became so toxic and counterproductive that bots were literally designed to jump from one unsustainable token to another farming as much as they possibly could and dumping 100% of all the DEFI tokens farmed. This should never have been allowed to have happened, but it was almost celebrated. Very alarming indeed.
And so today we find that crypto is stuck in the mud once again. What are people saying as they ride by in their horse-drawn carriage? "Well certainly that is a worthless technology that will never amount to anything." LOL... how many times do we need to have these pump/dump cycles before people realize this is all part of the process? The answer is infinity. People are never going to get it. People are dumb. Bet on it.
But it is also particularly annoying to see the Bitcoin maximalists say that everything is a shitcoin and that all those hot-air-balloons with holes in them are never going to amount to anything. Really? What happens when we just like... you know... remove the holes? Not hard to delete five lines of code that put them there on purpose.
And we have so much farther to go as well in terms of learning to stabilize DEFI with tools that fiat (and Bitcoin) will NEVER have. The ability to intelligently allocate inflation will lead to cryptocurrencies that are better than fiat in every way (including stability). Right now we are in the Wild West phase of a centralized dev team being responsible for these allocations. This leads to flip-flopping, greed, and corruption quite quickly, as we have already witnessed. But again this will not always be the case. Once a template is created that actually works, it will be copied 1000 times over, just like everything else in crypto that has success.
Conclusion
If we haven't hit the bottom already, it will appear to us within a month or two. I'm pretty certain we are either at or very near the bottom. All that's left is to wait out the FTX contagion and see what is left standing after the dust settles.
Crypto is cutting edge tech. This tech is new and operates under a model which most do not understand because it runs so contrary to everything we know about legacy finance. Of course the opening models are bound to be full of holes, but that's the thing about development: it always progresses forward. Onto version 2 point 0.
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If there was only Bitcoin and nothing else, blockchain as a technology would have stagnated.
Bitcoin maximalists wish the entire crypto market cap go to Bitcoin to pump their pre-existing bags and to prove their vision.
If there was only Bitcoin, the only type of exchange would be the fiat ramps. Pretty boring. Leveraged exchanges abusing user deposits would fail just the same when the balloons deflate.
Since the beginning of time, most altcoins were copy and paste with slight twist of different parameters for the purpose of pump and dump to get more bitcoins.
if this is really the bottom it's interesting that they usually occur in December/January
The tops usually occur in December/January as well eh?
When was the last top?
It would be weird if it wasn't the bottom imo.
After the dot com bubble it took a lot of people years to say that perhaps this internet thing is going to be something someday.
By that time Google and Amazon had already scaled up their businesses a lot and refined their business model.
That’s what’s happening now as well. Those that identify the winners now, not by price, but by the potential of the strategy and business model, will have the chance of creating generational wealth for their families.
I’d say that hive has a pretty good chance of success. Cubdefi seems to get closer to a sustainable model and polycub clearly needs more work. The leofinance everything-app might rival Elon’s x-app. But they might all fail to adapt to the next challenge. Who knows?
The upside though is worth taking the risk to invest in my opinion.
Yes, waiting for the dust to settle.
Haters assume they know it.
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Possibly the gravitational force is acting and I'm sure the law didn't excluded the crypto verse.
Anything that goes up must come down but what about anything that goes down?
The problem with CBDCs is... that it is pretty darn evil.
So, good vs evil is really easy to throw at it.
But, it is really not evil, it is the people behind it, that have said they want more control. Control on what you can spend and where. And the tracking.
The other problem with CBDCs is, everyone is expecting the Trojans. Everyone is wary of Trojan Horses... except that we have a collection of such "horses" in the town square, on display, with wild parties every night...
What i can say about the future is that the banksters fail spectacularly... or they get rounded up and put on trial for fraud and worse.
But what does this say about how things will play out? Nothing. Except that we will see places where all the bank money seems to flow, and then burst, flop, thud. And if you like to chase things (like stock prices), then you will also be caught in the burst, flop, thud.
However! We are going to see cryptos win, because they are that much better than what we had. But the road... the road is not designed for race cars.
The road is a road and has many lanes.
It has a fast lane (cutting edge stuff that's 99% fails).
It has a slow lane (Bitcoin).
All of my research concludes that CBDC FUD is wildly overexaggerated.
I mean what else can I say on the matter?
I've done over 20 hours of research on it.
The people saying it's going to happen haven't done dick.
All they do is look for clues to confirm the bias.
They already decided what the answer was long ago.
The New York Fed is working on a CBDC at the wholesale level. People need to understand what the hell is taking place.
This is a test of interbank transactions, in an effort to improve the cross border payment system. This has nothing to do with the USD as a currency or a wallet system for individuals.
But then, most people do not realize that reserves are not USD and that none of us can utilize it.
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Same plan every cycle, we're taking over the world :))
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