Follow up on Soulbound chest analysis - is it better to be in Diamond or Champion?

in #cross-post2 months ago (edited)


The question I'm exploring in this post is "should I stay in Diamond or go to Champion" to more quickly max out my Soulbound rewards cards? Thanks to @xsuilx for suggesting this idea!

In this analysis, unlike the previous one, I do take into account usage of potions since I assume Diamond and Champion players will all be receiving (or buying) enough potions to use them during chest openings.

Without further ado, here's the data:


Each cell represents the number chests required in that league to match the drop rate of 1 Champion chest for that rarity and foil. The Champion row has all 1s because 1 Champ chest = 1 Champ chest... For all other leagues, that's the number of chests which on average will net you equivalent drops as a Champ chest. So for example if you're looking at Legendary Regular foils, you'd need 1.9x as many Diamond chests as Champion chests in order to max those out. In other words, for Legendary RF, 1.9 Diamond chests == 1 Champion chest. Remember all these are averages, which works on large sample sizes, but that doesn't mean you can't get lucky and get 3 GFLs in a Diamond chest.

For Commons and Rares, it's better to go with Diamond. That's because the chance of any card in a chest stays at 33% for every league, so the distribution towards Common goes down as you go up in league and the chance of Rare stays the same. Champion gets a chance at a higher number of cards, but that gets balanced by the decreased chance of Commons.

If you're comparing two other leagues (e.g. Gold vs. Diamond), you can simply divide the Gold number by the Diamond number to get the result you're looking for (e.g. If looking at Legendary Regular Foil that would be 2.5/1.9 which is 1.3 - i.e. 1.3 Gold chests == 1 Diamond chest when it comes to Legendary RF rewards cards drop rate).

Ultimately this depends on how many chests you expect to get in each league, which is a bit hard to predict. A few thoughts:

  • For Diamond vs. Champion, you need nearly twice as many Diamond chests (1.9x) to match the drop rates of Champion on Epic and Legendary cards; However you're MUCH more likely to max out the Common and Rare cards much faster
  • For Epic and Legendary Gold Foil cards, it's much better to advance into higher leagues (again this is on average - some of you will get a lucky 3 GFL drop in Gold League!) as you'd need 3x as many Diamond chests to get the same expected drops as in Champion
  • If you're teetering between Gold and Diamond, it may be better to stay in Diamond, at least when it comes to Epic and Legendary cards (just need 30% more Gold chests)

So what do you think? will you be advancing as high as you can or staying in your current league?

Good luck and may the RNG be ever in your favor!


Good write up! These cards are for sure going to take a little time to level up and get into battle but I have to say the designs and perks on them are pretty cool!

100% agree, they are gorgeous and fun to play with. The new abilities in particular are awesome.

Thanks for sharing! - @azircon

Awesome article, as always, @bravetofu! I will stay unfortunately in Silver for a long, long time. Nevertheless, I love how many cards I am getting right now. Today is Friday and I already broke my all-time record of most cards in a single week! I had to admit I'm not applying potions to my reward cards because I'm giving priority to my packs, but as soon as I finish them, I will apply those religiously! Great reading! !PIZZA !PGM !CTP

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