China news roundup / Nachrichten 2022-06-09

Not really representative for anything. No one knows Atkinson, but everyone knows Mr. Bean. I'm not sure many people know Johnny English. What I know is that virtually nobody knows Black Adder.

I know both of them. Admittedly, I didn't know of Black Adder until a British friend introduced me to it back in Beijing, and regarding Johnny English, I have never seen the movie and yet I remember laughing uproariously at the trailer.
"Remember when I told you the only way you'd be an agent is if all the agents were dead?"
"...yes."
"Get down here immediately."

But in more serious remarks...
I'm not sure what to expect at the upcoming conference. I'm of the opinion that Xi Jinping's hold on power is so tight that the chances of him not getting his third term are slim, but I'm forced to admit that after the level of ire against him, they are no longer zero.
As for the PLA learning from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as usual they are learning all the wrong lessons. China's internal dialogue is "see? The West is afraid to fight. So it will be when we 'liberate' Taiwan." What they fail to see is that to even get an invasion force to Taiwan will require troop ships being sitting ducks for hours as they cross the strait, and when they get across then they will have to scale cliffs that they have not trained for (the PLA's amphibious landing drills are universally identical with soft, flat, white-sand beaches that are specifically chosen to ensure a successful outcome of every training exercise). PLA training also invariably assumes that all opposition will be cowed into submission by the sheer "shock and awe" of China's "invincible" presence, and they will not know what to do when they find that the entire population is arming themselves for the express purpose of killing PLA invaders.
In short, the PLA can expect to lose about a third of their invasion force before they've even engaged in regular combat, and when they reach that point they'll be outnumbered, surrounded, cut off from mainland support and overrun by opposition who has the home field advantage.